Recently, there is a growing interest in understanding how individuals adapt to changing climate conditions and climate-induced extreme weather events. An underexplored question is whether and how climate-related natural hazards affect household saving behavior. For this purpose, we exploit a natural experiment stemming from the European Flood of August 2002. Combining micro data with geo-coded flood maps allows us to analyze the causal impact of flood exposure on household savings within a differences-in-differences setting. We find that flood exposure depresses household saving behavior in the medium run. The most likely explanation is moral hazard induced by massive government support for affected households.

Much literature on the disaster-culture nexus focuses on tangible elements such as demograpics or geography and adopts an anthropocentric Western and positivistic mindset. In contrast, this Working Paper applies an epistemological ‘disaster*cultures’ approach to Indonesia. We put the onus on construction processes, interpreting and finding meaning rather than on identifying set patterns, and highlight how culture does not refer to ‘exotic’ processes that can only be studied at the community level. Researchers, practitioners and policy-makers all approach disasters and risks through their own specific (disciplinary) lenses. The first part of thiw Working Paper will introduce our disaster*cultures-approach. Subsequently, analysing academic literature in English and Bahasa Indonesia, but also poems, art, toponyms, grey literature and selected exchanges conducted with Indonesian tsunami scientists and disaster management officials in 2022 as part of the TSUNAMI_RISK research project, we review the socio-historical ways through which multi-ple disaster*cultures have formed in Indonesia. The remainder of the Working Paper details the main disaster stakeholders, policies and practices at play in Indonesia today, particularly in re-gard to the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (InaTEWS) and efforts to detect non-seismically induced tsunamis. As such, we aim to provide disaster scholars and practitioners with a holistic overview of the Indonesian contexts in which they operate, and to facilitate more socio-culturally sensitive technology and warning system development.

This case study examines and analyses the socio-environmental impacts of the implementation of ecotourism in Colombia’s Tayrona National Natural Park from the period following the peace agreements in 2016 until 2021. This paper explores the social and environmental implications of ecotourism as a means of territorial pacification, assessing the park’s environmental trajectory and the current administration to determine if its management aligns with the ecotourism objectives of environmental conservation and protection of indigenous communities within their ancestral territory. Additionally, the study also evaluates the debate surrounding the environmental and cultural sustainability of ecotourism as a development strategy, and assesses its positive and negative impacts on this natural area previously affected by armed conflict.

In the early 21st century, Bolivia and Peru experienced remarkable economic growth, coupled with notable reductions in poverty and inequality. However, the subsequent economic slowdown triggered by declining international commodity prices raised concerns about the sustainability of their progress. Historically, both nations have been vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices, often resulting in social unrest and political instability. This study examines whether the significant influx of resources to Bolivia and Peru from 2003 to 2013, attributed to the commodity boom, fostered structural transformation or, on the contrary, reinforced their dependence on the global economy. Analyzing macroeconomic and productivity data, the research indicates a strong correlation between their economic performance and the commodity supercycle trend. A primary finding suggests that rather than fostering a more self-reliant economic integration, the 21st-century economic boom exacerbated the reliance of both nations on natural resource extraction. However, a more nuanced examination reveals divergent medium-term impacts driven by each nation’s development model. Peru, through diversification of international revenue streams and prudent macroeconomic policies, managed to mitigate the effects of declining commodity prices. In contrast, Bolivia’s economy bore the brunt of diminishing income, not only due to the end of the commodity boom but also due to insufficient investments in productive sectors.

This chapter of the emerging new Research Handbook on International Law and Domestic Legal Systems offers concluding observations on the centrality of different visions of the international for the relationship between domestic and international law. The contributions demonstrate that competing perceptions of the international as a space for co-operation and solidarity on the one hand and as an arena of conflict on the other are competing with each other. The editors point to key doctrinal responses to these opposite trends: accepting conflict, deference by international courts, the presumption of compatibility and the deepening of pluralist approaches.

Die Zeit der Klimaklagen ist jetzt. In den Jahren 2020 bis 2022 wurden weltweit etwa 500 Klimaklagen eingereicht, dies entspricht einem Viertel der Gesamtzahl von Klimaklagen (Setzer et al. 2022). Klimaklagen sind eine der vielen politischen Herausforderungen der kommenden Jahre, denn sie werden als Instrument eingesetzt, um wirksamen Klimaschutz sowohl von staatlichen als auch von privatwirtschaftlichen Akteur*innen einzufordern (Rodi & Kalis 2022). Dass ihre Anzahl weiter steigen wird, ist erwartbar. Nicht zuletzt, weil sich eine „Community of Practice“ (Higham et al. 2023:28) herausgebildet hat, die sich international über Strategien und Anknüpfungspunkte für Klimaklagen austauscht (:28). Bahnbrechende Gerichtsentscheidungen wie das letztinstanzliche Urteil gegen die Niederlande (Urgenda Case) oder das erstinstanzliche Urteil gegen den Energiekonzern Shell beginnen erst ihre direkten und indirekten Wirkungen zu entfalten. Unter Rückbezug auf die Anticipatory Governance wurden in einem zweistufigen empirischen Forschungsdesign (Futures Wheel und Delphi) mögliche Folgewirkungen von Klimaklagen für die Jahre 2026 bis 2040 auf Staat, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft untersucht. Ergebnisse der Zukunftsstudie waren einerseits Impulse für eine zukunftsorientierte Politikgestaltung (Muiderman et al. 2020:14), mit denen die Resilienz gegenüber möglichen Folgewirkungen von erwartbaren, aber in ihrem Inhalt ungewissen Gerichtsentscheidungen (Wegener 2019) erhöht werden könnte, und andererseits die Erkenntnis, dass sich die Futures Wheel-Methode (Glenn 2009) durch ihr intuitives Design für die Zukunftsanalyse und Antizipation als erster Schritt der vorausschauenden Regierungsführung (Quay 2010:498) eignet, um alternative Möglichkeitsräume konkreter politischer Herausforderungen zu explorieren.

Beschäftigte und Ehrenamtliche im Alltagsgefahrenmanagement sowie im Zivil- und Katastrophen schutz erfahren nicht nur Anerkennung und Respekt für ihre Tätigkeit. Anfeindungen und Gewalt ge genüber diesen Einsatzkräften werden sowohl in der Öffentlichkeit als auch in der Forschung disku tiert, meist mit Blick auf Rettungsdienstmitarbeiter*innen. Die folgende Studie erweitert diese Per spektive auf Bevölkerungsschutzkräfte. Im Rahmen einer nicht-repräsentativen, deutschlandweiten Online-Umfrage unter 1.957 Einsatz- und Verwaltungskräften in Bevölkerungsschutzkontexten im Jahr 2023 wurden die Häufigkeit und Art der erlebten Anfeindungen in Einsätzen quantitativ erfragt und durch qualitative Antworten hinsichtlich der Begleitumstände der Anfeindungen ergänzt. Etwa 60 % der Befragten berichteten von Gewalterfahrungen in Einsatzzusammenhängen, darunter verbale (mündliche) Anfeindungen, die Androhung von Gewalt und Anfeindungen im Internet bzw. in den sozialen Medien, Angriffe auf Einsatzfahrzeuge, körperliche Angriffe und psychische Anfeindungen wie Mobbing und soziale Ausgrenzung. Im Rahmen der Analyse der berichteten Anfeindung erfolgte auch eine differenzierte Betrachtung zwischen den unterschiedlichen befragten Organisationen sowie ehren- und hauptamtlich tätigen Organisationsmitgliedern.

The influence of anti-gender movements is on the rise globally as they seek to prevent the expansion of transgender rights. In Germany, the anti-gender debate has gained renewed intensity in the wake of the publication of the draft Self-Determination Act in June 2022. Within this discourse, two prominent groups of actors emerged: gender-critical feminists and right-wing populists. Despite their divergent ideological and political positions, the affordances of social media provide them with a platform for collaborative interactions. Thus, under issue-related hashtags, the boundaries between these actors are becoming increasingly blurred. This research utilizes affect theory and analysis of hashtag activism to investigate the collective protest on Twitter against the proposed Self-Determination Act. Employing social network analysis (SNA), the study identifies pivotal structures and actors within the #FrauenSagenNein (#WomenSayNo) network. Additionally, qualitative content analysis delves into the narratives and sentiments employed in constructing hostile portrayals of transgender individuals. The findings illustrate that #FrauenSagenNein served as a bridging tool that connects gender-critical feminists and right-wing populist actors, leading to their intersection. Based on these findings, it is vital to critically monitor such alliances to counter the spread of binary gender norms and heteronormative beliefs.

Diese Arbeit analysiert den Krisenbegriff und seine Bedeutung für den soziopolitischen Denkrahmen von Zukunftsvisionen. Einführend untersucht die Arbeit die Implikationen des Krisenbegriffs und beschreibt, wie dieser in öffentlichen Narrativen besondere Wirkmacht entfaltet. Eine hermeneutische Interpretation der ersten „Rede zur Zeitenwende“, in der Olaf Scholz die zukunftsprägenden Auswirkungen des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine adressiert, veranschaulicht sowohl die Chancen als auch die Probleme eines auf dem Krisenbegriff gründenden Zukunftsentwurfs. Insbesondere zeigt die Interpretation auf, dass Scholz den Krisenbegriff als ‚Zeitenwende‘ neu formuliert, um so die erfolgreiche Bewältigung der Krise narrativ vorwegzunehmen und zu suggerieren, dass die Zukunft nach der Krise sowohl im normativen als auch im epistemischen Sinn gesichert ist.

Die vorliegende Arbeit verfolgt zwei wesentliche Ziele. Zum einen soll sie aufzeigen, inwiefern der Krisenbegriff den erkenntnistheoretischen Denkrahmen möglicher Zukünfte setzt und damit ein besonderes Zeitverständnis formt. Zum anderen soll sie die soziopolitischen Implikationen eines solchen krisengeprägten Zukunftsdenkens problematisieren. Als Behauptung einer bereits bewältigten Krise verdeutlicht das Narrativ der ‚Zeitenwende‘ einerseits, dass Zukunftssicherheit – in Form einer einzig möglichen und einig gewünschten Zukunft – zur legitimierenden Grundlage nationaler Deutungshoheit und politischer Handlungsmacht wird. Andererseits blendet ein solches Narrativ, das zukunftssichere Handlungs- und Gestaltungsfähigkeit als Antwort auf die Krise betont, alternative Zukunftsentwicklungen nicht nur aus, sondern lässt sie sogar undenkbar werden. Abschließend reflektiert diese Arbeit deshalb kritisch die Grenzen des Denkrahmens öffentlich wirkmächtiger Narrative, welche die Krise zum Ausgangspunkt eines Zukunftsentwurfs im Namen einer bestimmten und einigen Gemeinschaft machen.

Since the two narratives of strategic autonomy and European sovereignty first appeared in the EU in 2016 and 2017, they have been omnipresent. At the same time, Donald Trump was elected as U.S. president and a series of difficulties in transatlantic relations began. Although transatlantic relations have been tumultuous in the past, statements by experts and leaders prompt speculation that the Transatlantic Security Community (TSC) has undergone deeper changes this time around. Therefore, this paper analyzes the extent to which the EU’s Common Security and Defense policies (CSDPs) have been justified from 2016 to 2020 given the evolving TSC. In doing so, it becomes clear that the TSC is not the only explanation for the EU’s recent CSDPs but is merely one of many.

One of the primary objectives of protests and demonstrations is to bring social, political, or economic issues to the attention of politicians and the wider population. While protests can have a mobilizing and persuading effect, they may reduce support for their cause if they are perceived as a threat to public order. In this study, we look at how local or spontaneously organised xenophobic demonstrations affect concerns about hostility towards foreigners and worries about immigration among natives in Germany. We use a regression discontinuity design to compare the attitudes of individuals interviewed in the days immediately before a large far-right demonstration and individuals interviewed in the days immediately after that demonstration. Our results show that large right-wing demonstrations lead to a substantial increase in worries about hostility towards foreigners of 13.7% of a standard deviation. In contrast, worries about immigration are not affected by the demonstrations, indicating that the protesters are not successful in swaying public opinion in their favour. In the heterogeneity analyses, we uncover some polarisation in the population: While worries about hostility against foreigners increase and worries about immigration decrease in left-leaning regions, both types of worries increase in districts where centre-right parties are more successful. Lastly, we also show that people become more politically interested in response to protests, mainly benefiting left-wing parties, and are more likely to wish to donate money to help refugees.

Behavioral economics has so far largely avoided discussing the psychological origins of preferences, as well as their relation to needs. This has not only restricted interdisciplinary exchange, but also significantly limits the predictive capabilities of models. For example, the revealed preference approach can only reliably predict repeating choices, while needing large amounts of observations for calibration. In this paper, I show how unifying preferences with the psychological concept of needs strengthens economic models, by developing a decision-making framework for well-being assessment and choice prediction. To present the direct merit of this approach, I show how this framework yields a systematic approximation scheme, which is able to solve limitations of current approaches by describing new alternatives, non-repeating choices, or otherwise unobservable desires. Meanwhile, the approximation scheme requires less observations on an individual level than current approaches. I achieve this by constructing a hierarchical dependency between human motivations and preferences through the language of needs. I show the basic feasibility of the approximation scheme through simulations on random populations. In practice, the framework is applicable in situations where individuals exert choices only once and measuring preferences is expensive, like evaluating policy proposals or predicting decisions under technological change

Current time allocation and household production models face three major weaknesses: First, they only describe the average time allocation. Thus, information about the order of activities is lost. Therefore, it is impossible to describe the influence of activities on later ones. Such interactions are likely pervasive, and can significantly alter behavior. Second, they are unable to describe the effort allocation of individuals, although effort influences one’s time allocation. Thereby, they are either unable or very limited in describing labor productivity or multitasking although individuals frequently multitask. Through the omission of interactions and effort allocation, current models yield biased descriptions of e.g. price and time elasticities. Third, they require strong assumptions, such as perfect foresight or periodic environments, and thus cannot describe behavior in unpredictable environments, like reactions to external shocks. In this paper, I provide a remedy for these shortcomings by developing a dynamical model of procedurally rational decision making. The basic idea of the model is a feedback loop between experienced utility, decision utility, and activities. In applications of the model, I show how introducing a work-leisure interaction and multitasking significantly changes elasticities and how nonmarginal external shocks cause short-term demand surges, none of which can be described by current time allocation models.