In Spence’s (1973) signaling by education model and in many of its extensions, firms can only infer workers’ productivities from their education choices. In reality, firms also use sophisticated pre–employment auditing to learn workers’ productivities. We characterize the trade–offs between signaling by workers and costly information acquisition by firms. Information acquisition is always associated with (partial) pooling of worker types, and education is used as a signal only if relatively few workers have low productivity. Our analysis applies also to other signaling problems, e.g. the financial structure of firms, warranties, and initial public offerings.

Existing literature on cross-national variation in violence has paid little attention to the transnational transmission of crime. One such channel are the forced returns of migrants with a criminal record in their countries of temporary residence. Responding to this research gap, we study the effect of US deportations of convicts on levels of violent crime in deportees’ countries of origin for a cross-country panel of up to 123 countries covering the years 2003 to 2015. We find a strong and robust effect of criminal deportations on homicide rates in countries of origin, that is to a large degree driven by deportations towards Latin America and the Caribbean. An additional inflow of ten deportees with a criminal history per 100,000 increases expected homicide rates by more than two. In addition to controlling for country-specific fixed effects, we provide evidence on a causal effect using an instrumental variable approach, that exploits spatial and time variation in migrant populations’ exposure to state level immigration policies in the US

Rising poverty and inequality increases the risk of social instability in countries all around the world. For measuring poverty and inequality there exists a variety of statistical indicators. Estimating these indicators is trivial as long as the income variable is measured on a metric scale. However, estimation is not possible, using standard formulas, when the income variable is interval censored (or grouped), as in the German Microcensus. This is the case for numerous censuses due to confidentiality constraints or in order to decrease item non-response. To enable the estimation of statistical indicators in these scenarios, we propose an iterative kernel density algorithm that generates metric pseudo samples from the interval censored income variable. Based on these pseudo samples, poverty and inequality indicators are estimated. The standard errors of the indicators are estimated by a non-parametric bootstrap. Simulation results demonstrate that poverty and inequality indicators from interval censored data can be unbiasedly estimated by the proposed kernel density algorithm. Also the standard errors are correctly estimated by the non-parametric bootstrap. The kernel density algorithm is applied in this work to estimate regional poverty and inequality indicators from German Microcensus data. The results show the regional distribution of poverty and inequality in Germany.

El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala count among today’s most violent countries of the world. Qualitative research has claimed that large-scale deportations of Central American convicts have played an important role for the spread of gangs and rampant violence in the region. Using a novel identification strategy, this paper provides the first econometric evidence for this hypothesis from the case of El Salvador. Regarding the dependent variable, the policy experiment of a truce between rivaling gangs in 2012 allows to single out gang-related killings from overall homicide rates. The explanatory variable exploits subnational variation in the exposure of migrant communities to exogenous conditions in the host country. Violence spilled over to migrants’ places of origin when migrant corridors developed around US destinations with high pre-existing levels of violent crime. The cross-sectional evidence is backed by panel data analysis dating back to 1999. The annual inflow of convicts translated into rising homicides mainly in those municipalities whose migrants were exposed to high pre-existing crime at destination, whereas deportations of non-convicts did not have the same effect. These finding are in line with evidence on the origin of Central American gangs in US cities and convicts’ return to their places of birth after massive deportations since the mid-1990s.

Competing definitions of justice in Plato’s Republic and Aristotle’s Politics indicate the existence of two distinct economic systems with different normative priorities. The three-class society of the Platonic economy (guardians, auxiliaries, producers) gives rise to guardians who by virtue are expected to enforce output targets on producers directly or through auxiliaries. The three-class society of the Aristotelian economy (rich, middle, poor) facilitates the emergence of different ruling coalitions and compensates efficiency losses of vertical production processes with political gains derived from representative governance. In the Aristotelian economy, the middle class is better off than in the Platonic economy (auxiliaries), because a just society (polity) is achieved under its rule. I argue that the equilibrium solutions of the Platonic and Aristotelian systems provide the normative foundations for the distinction between plan and market.

In recent years, a series of crises have hit the European Union (i.e., the Eurozone crisis, the sovereign debt crises, the Great Recession, the refugee crisis, Brexit). Such precarious times have challenged solidarity both between European citizens, as well as between the Member States of the EU. The current paper investigates the degree of European solidarity in the European Union in the light of these developments. The paper describes the preliminary findings of a recent research project conducted on European solidarity. We surveyed citizens of 13 Members States of the EU about their disposition toward (European) solidarity. An upcoming book will offer an elabo-rate theoretical framework about the existence of European solidarity. Additionally, this book will also presents detailed results from the project and indepth discussion of the findings. However, we decided to publish some of the descriptive results beforehand in the form of this report as the major findings of our study have high public and political relevance. The development of recent crises has been rather fastpaced, and is in contrast with the long wait that comes with the publication of academic texts. So, the latter process hinders the most important information to reach the public and policy makers as soon as possible and this report wishes to remedy it slightly.

In Chapter 1, we will elaborate on the conceptual framework of our study. By Euro-pean solidarity, we understand a form of solidarity expanded beyond one’s own na-tion state; recipients of solidarity are other EU countries, or citizens living in another EU country. In the first part of Chapter 1, we systematically distinguish between four different domains of European solidarity: (1) Fiscal solidarity, defined as citizens’ willingness to support indebted European countries financially. (2) Welfare state solidarity, defined as citizens’ strong agreement to support those in need – unemployed, sick, and the elderly – regardless of where they live in the EU, and to reduce inequality between rich and poor people in Europe. (3) Territorial solidarity, the willingness to reduce inequality between poor and rich EU countries. (4) Finally, the refugee crisis has raised the question of (4.1) external solidarity, defined as the support for the EU to grant asylum to refugees coming from outside of EU, and (4.2) internal solidarity, defined as a strong agreement with how Member States should share the burden of distributing refugees among themselves. In the second part of Chapter 1, we define different criteria for determining the strength of European solidarity.

In Chapters 2 to 5, we will apply the explicated criteria for the existence of European solidarity to each of the four domains of solidarity. By doing so, we can determine the strength of European solidarity in each domain of solidarity. As this report aims at giving a first overview of some of our results, we will apply two of the four theoreti-cally developed criteria of European solidarity to the four domains only and present the corresponding descriptive results.

Overall, our analyses reveal some unanticipated findings. Europeans altogether display a notably higher level of solidarity with citizens of other EU countries and EU states than many politicians and social scientists have so far presumed. This especially applies to the support of people in need (welfare state solidarity) and the reduction of wealth inequalities between rich and poor European countries (territorial solidarity), but also to the domain of fiscal solidarity. On top of this, European solidarity turns out to be more established than the global one.

However, this optimistic view is not valid for the domain of solidarity with refugees. Whilst citizens of western and southern European countries support both, the ac-ceptance of refugees and the fair distribution of the incurring costs and burdens be-tween European countries, the majority of people in eastern European countries do not share this point of view.

The report outlines the local refugee integration policy and its implementation by the public administration in Berlin. It starts by giving an overview of the political, administrative and social structures in the German capital, before presenting in more detail the responsibilities for refugee integration policy. A number of public bodies are involved in making and implementing integration policy, and tasks are shared between the city and the district levels of the city-state Berlin. Moreover, the content of integration policies is explained, focusing on the four research areas of the project: employment, education, vulnerable groups and social assistance. Berlin draws on a number of federal, state and local programs to support refugee integration, e.g. in terms of providing training, language tuition, health care services, accommodation and counselling. Many of these services are not provided directly, but by a broad variety of non-profit organizations. Some of them have been active in Berlin for years, whereas others have emerged in response to the increase in refugee migration in 2015/16. The city cooperates with these organizations in a number of ways, some of which will be researched in more detail in the upcoming case studies of the project.

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This paper investigates the daily information content of inflation-linked swap rates for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of inflation swap rates when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of inflation swap rates. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.

Zentrales Anliegen des Beitrags ist es, Affekttheorien für die empirische Anwendung in der Kommunikations- und Medienwissenschaft nutzbar zu machen. Dazu stellen wir zunächst zentra-le Stränge der Emotionsforschung in der Rezeptions- und Wirkungsforschung sowie der Medi-entextanalyse dar, klären die von ihnen verwendeten Begriffe und machen ihre Bezüge zur Af-fektforschung deutlich. Daran anschließend führen wir knapp in aktuelle affekttheoretische An-sätze ein, beginnend mit einer Rekonstruktion früher Auseinandersetzungen in den Cultural Stu-dies, und entwickeln schließlich ein Analysemodell, mit dem Affekte als sozial-relationale Phä-nomene der Medienkommunikation empirisch analysiert werden können. Zur Exemplifizierung beziehen wir uns primär auf das Medium Fernsehen als einem Modus audiovisueller Kommuni-kation. Diese Betrachtung erlaubt jedoch auch weiterführende Überlegungen zur Bedeutung affektiver Dynamiken zwischen Medientechnologien, -texten und ihren Nutzer_innen.

On the occasion of related proposals by the European Commission and the Eurogroup, this paper proposes to entrust the ESM with the hosting of the ESRB in the medium term. The novel proposal aims at strengthening the macro-prudential expertise of the ESM and at enhancing the independence of the ESRB. Following a brief summary of related proposals, the main rationales and the key elements of the proposal are presented in detail.

This concluding chapter of the third edition of European Integration Theory (OUP 2018) takes stock of the updated mosaic of integration theory. The chapter is organised in three sections. The first section offers a comparative perspective on the book’s chapters. To that end, it presents the preferences of each approach from a comparative perspective, against the backdrop of three leading metaphorical perceptions of the EU. The second section addresses the absence of security crises in the book’s contributions. To explore, how security crises may be brought into focus in integration theory, it distinguishes the impact of integration along two dimensions. These include first, the horizontal regional comparative perspective and the ‘litmus test’ of the applicability of integration theory to other regions; and second, the vertical dimension which connects normative crises in EU sub-units with global conflicts. And the concluding third section asks how integration theory fares sixty years on from the Treaty of Rome, and points out potential issues and themes for the future of European integration theory.

The EU’s common security and defence policy (CSDP) was launched in the 1990s as a quest for “autonomy.” Fifteen years of efforts failed to deliver that objective. The coherence of the EU member states in their security dealings with the US was always vulnerable to the potentially incompatible objectives of the UK and France. But as EU leaders post-Brexit re-launch the CSDP, as the 2016 European Global Strategy rediscovers the virtues of “strategic autonomy,” and as the world juggles with a US president who appears to question the basis of the Atlantic Alliance, it is time to radically re-think the relations between the EU and NATO. This paper argues that, in the longer term, it is through the strengthening of the EU-NATO relationship that EU strategic autonomy will become possible, and that a consolidation of the transatlantic bond will emerge.

This introductory chapter of the third edition of European Integration Theory (OUP 2018) addresses the rationale for a book on European integration theory and introduces the contributions to the book. It begins by addressing the question of Why Study Integration Theory; it then defines the terms ‘integration’ and ‘theory’ and introduces the ‘mosaic of European integration theory’ as the book’s central concept. The chapter also offers an overview of European integration as a process which has been studied for several decades now. To that end, the chapter recalls distinct phases of integration and the respective parts of the mosaic which have been developed to understand and explain them based on descriptive, analytical and constructive theorising. Each phase is distinguished by historical context, leading questions and relevant theoretical reference points. The book’s extensive section on Studying European Integration by taking account of ‘contexts of theoretical development’ and addressing the question of ‘competing or complementary theoretical approaches’ which also identifies the functions and areas of theory. In concluding, the chapter details the concept of the ‘Mosaic of Integration Theory’ and introduces the chapter structure of the book’s contributions.

After twenty years of continuous deepening and widening, European integration has entered an era of recurrent crises. Most students of the European Union (EU) seem to agree that the constitutional equilibrium between intergovernmental and supranational institutions has changed. Some see “new intergovernmentalism” and “integration without supranationalisation” prevail. Others contend that we witness a series of functional and institutional spillovers empowering supranational institutions. This paper argues that governance approaches are particularly useful to address the puzzling counter-positions represented in the current debate about the ‘nature of the beast. They are better equipped to explore how and to what end institutional structures and processes have responded to the crises than mainstream integration theories. The paper starts with introducing the “governance turn” in EU studies as the attempt of EU scholars in the early 1990s to capture the nature of the EU. It then presents a typology that is based on a broad concept of governance as institutionalized forms of political coordination. The empirical part uses this typology to give an overview of the structures and processes of EU governance before applying it to the financial and the migration crises. The paper concludes with a discussion of the major challenges for European integration (theories) from a governance perspective, particularly with regard to managing current and preventing future crises.