This paper develops a two-step inference procedure to test for a local one-for-one relation of contemporaneous jumps in high-frequency financial data corrupted by market microstructure noise. The first step develops a new bivariate Lee-Mykland jump test for pre-averaged, intra-day returns. If a jump is detected in at least one of the two assets, then the second step tests for equal jump sizes. We apply the test procedure to pairs of nominal and inflationindexed government bond yields at monetary policy announcements in the U.S., U.K., and Euro Area. The analysis provides new high-frequency evidence about the anchoring of inflation expectations and central banks’ ability to push a measure of inflation expectations towards their inflation target.

The Vehicle Scheduling Problem (VSP) is a well-studied combinatorial optimization problem arising for bus companies in public transport. The objective is to cover a given set of timetabled trips by a set of buses at minimum costs. The Electric Vehicle Scheduling Problem (E-VSP) complicates traditional bus scheduling by considering electric buses with limited driving ranges. To compensate these limitations, detours to charging stations become necessary for charging the vehicle batteries during operations. To save costs, the charging stations must be located within the road network in such a way that required deadhead trips are as short as possible or even redundant. For solving the traditional VSP, a variety of solution approaches exist capable of solving even real-world instances with large networks and timetables to optimality. In contrast, the problem complexity increases significantly when considering limited ranges and chargings of the batteries. For this reason, there mainly exist solution approaches for the E-VSP which are based von heuristic procedures as exact methods do not provide solutions within a reasonable time. In this paper, we present a literature review of solution approaches for scheduling electric vehicles in public transport and location planning of charging stations. Since existing work differ in addition to the solution methodology also in the mapping of electric vehicles' technical aspects, we pay particular attention to these characteristics. To conclude, we provide a perspective for potential further research.

Temporary employees rank lower than permanent employees on various measures of mental and physical health, including well-being. In parallel, much research has shown that the relationship between age and well-being traces an approximate U-shape, with a nadir in midlife. Temporary employment may well have different associations with well-being across the lifespan, likely harming people in midlife more than at the start of their working lives. Using over twenty years of the German Socio-economic panel (SOEP), this investigation considers the relationship between temporary employment, age and well-being. In doing so, it both sheds new light on the relationship between temporary employment and well-being, and explores a reason for the oft-found U-shaped relationship between age and well-being. The results show that temporary employment deepens the U-shape in midlife, and that this result holds when many socioeconomic factors as well as the industry, region, cohort, personality, employment security and job worries are taken into account. Furthermore, the investigation considers transitions between permanent and temporary employment and uses these to assess causation and selection.

Die Pfadabhängigkeitstheorie hat seit ihrer Entwicklung eine immense Erweiterung ihres Anwendungsgebietes erfahren. Mitte der 80er Jahre noch zur Erklärung von Sonderphänomenen in der neoklassischen Ökonomie erfunden, hat sich die Theorie inzwischen zu einem über die Wirtschaftswissenschaften hinausgehenden Ansatz zur Erklärung der Dialektik von Kontinuität und Wandel auch in der Zukunftsforschung etabliert. Dabei ist jedoch die konzeptionelle Weiterentwicklung der Theorie zu großen Teilen auf der Strecke geblieben – die Differenziertheit der Theorie wird ihren komplexen Anwendungsgebieten nicht gerecht. Auch ist keine klare Linie zu erkennen, dass sich spätere Autor*Innen auf frühere beziehen und deren Beiträge und Kritik nutzen. Diese Arbeit ist der Versuch einer Aufarbeitung. Dafür werden die Beiträge der deutschsprachigen Diskussion zur Theorie gesichtet, geordnet und kritisiert, um anschließend einen eigenen Beitrag anzuschließen. In Anlehnung an Jürgen Beyer, der in seiner Publikation „Pfadabhängigkeit ist nicht gleich Pfadabhängigkeit!“ vorschlägt, die stabilitätssichernden Effekte der Theorie zu differenzieren, wird vorgeschlagen, auch die Pfade und deren Pfadzusammenhänge zu differenzieren. Dafür wird das Vokabular von drei weiteren Konzepten fruchtbar gemacht, die sich mit Wandel auseinandersetzen: die Causal Layered Analysis von Sohail Inayatullah, die Multi-Level-Perspective nach Frank Geels und die longue durée von Fernand Braudel. Die Arbeit schließt mit ersten Anwendungsexperimenten der neu sortierten und differenzierten Pfadabhängigkeitstheorie.

This paper examines the role of life satisfaction in the labor market behavior of workers receiving welfare benefits while working. Welfare stigma and other hard-to-observe factors may affect outcomes as on-the-job search and the duration until leaving welfare status. We utilize life satisfaction to track such factors. The German PASS-ADIAB dataset combines administrative process data with individual survey data offering a rich database that allows conditioning on changes in household income, time-stable individual traits, employment biographies and local labor market effects. Given a broad set of further covariates, we find that life satisfaction of in-work benefit recipients is negatively associated with job search, whereas the duration until the exit from welfare is hardly affected. Focusing on heterogeneity among workers suggests that life satisfactions’ role for choice depends on the institutional setting, rendering marginally employed workers specifically prone to life satisfaction.

This discussion paper reports and reflects on the reception of our article “Organizational path dependence: Opening the black box”, which was published in 2009 in the Academy of Management Review and granted the AMR Decade Award in 2019. While we were invited by the editor of the journal to discuss the criticism evoked by that paper, to re-examine our original propositions in the light of advanced insights and to outline new avenues for future research on organizational path dependence, in this discussion paper we report in some detail and comment on the citation landscape of our original AMR piece.

Current contestations of the liberal international order stand in notable contrast with the earlier rise of international law during the post-cold war period. As Krieger and Liese argue, this situation calls for assessment of the type of change that is currently observed, i.e. norm change (Wandel) or a more fundamental transformation of international law – a metamorphosis (Verwandlung)? To address this question, this paper details the bi-focal approach to norms in order to reflect and take account of the complex interrelation between fact-based and value-based conceptions of norms. The paper is organised in three sections. The first section presents three axioms underlying the conceptual framework to study norm(ative) change which are visualised by a triangular operation to analyse this change in relation with practices and norms. The second section recalls three key interests that have guided IR norms research after the return to norms in the late 1980s. They include, first, allocating change in and through practice, second, identifying behavioural change with reference to norm- following, and third, identifying norm(ative) change with reference to discursive practice. The third section presents the two analytical tools of the conceptual frame, namely, the norm-typology and the cycle-grid model. It also indicates how to apply these tools with reference to illustrative case scenarios. The conclusion recalls the key elements of the conceptual framework for research on norm(ative) change in international relations in light of the challenge of establishing sustainable normativity in the global order.

Las fusiones extremas entre las corporaciones de la cadena agroindustrial y el avance vertiginoso de la digitalización de los procesos agrícolas están afectando la agricultura y la alimentación en todo el mundo. En la Agricultura 4.0. convergen plataformas de datos masivos y automatización, genómica y tecnologías financieras y su control busca extenderse sobre los factores más importantes de la seguridad alimentaria mundial. Por supuesto, la soberanía alimentaria no es prioritaria en este esquema.

This paper explores the extent to which global and diffuse risks impact the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries of the EU’s Eastern neighbourhood and identifies tipping points at which risks can turn into immediate threats for the EaP countries, with implications for the EU. We apply five major risk categories to the EaP area that cover the majority of global and diffuse risks and suggest their prioritization based on temporality, probability of occurrence, and potential multiplication effects. We identify 28 tipping points which may exacerbate the impact of global and diffuse risks in EaP countries and result in governance breakdowns or new violent conflicts. The evidence suggests three global risks ‒ geopolitical rivalry, unconventional security risks and global economic and financial risk ‒ as most probable and with the most destabilizing impact on the EaP area in the short term. Disease outbreaks can be equally destructive, but with less certain probability. In terms of actorness, a majority of global risks seem to be linked to Russia and its assertive agenda, whereas others are diffuse in nature and hard to locate. Finally, in terms of resilience and mitigation of risks, societies in the EaP area seem to possess a basic degree of governance capacity which needs to be further strengthened by the EU to better cope with global and diffuse risks.

This paper discusses both the conditions under which resilience in areas of limited statehood (ALS) and contested orders (CO) can be fostered and the potential contributions by the EU and its member states. Drawing on EULISTCO’s conceptual framework, the paper defines the analytical category of resilience and provides a roadmap to study its characteristics in configurations of ALS and CO. In fact, it applies – and further problematizes – such concepts to the Eastern and Southern neighbourhood. It formulates a number of general hypotheses about how resilience can be fostered in these contexts, highlighting its historically contingent and context-specific nature, discussing how external actors could contribute in fostering resilience. These sets of hypotheses are meant to provide a roadmap for – and be tested in – subsequent EU-LISTCO empirical enquiries.

Confronted in its southern neighborhood with the choice between continued promotion of democratic transitions and the need for stability in the post Arab-Spring environment, the EU is tilting to the latter. Past EU efforts reflected the conviction that peace, stability, and prosperity were the outcomes of democracy. But threats of regional conflict, civil wars, waves of immigrants, and rise in terror is forcing a rethinking. While searching for stability is understandable, supporting a return of authoritarianism is counterproductive. Indeed, a return to tyranny in the Arab world has already created significant public discontent that has led to a second wave of Arab uprisings. The EU should seek to strengthen societal resilience by supporting democratic reforms, for example, by supporting local Arab civil society initiatives. Such support should be guided by local priorities, those that address the economic and well as the political, educational, and health needs of the Arab public.

This policy paper focuses on impacts of global and diffuse risks on the EU and its neighbourhood regions. It provides a brief overview of six major risk categories that cover majority of global and diffuse risks and suggests their prioritization based on temporality, probability of occurrence and multiplication effect. The empirical evidence dictates that, in order to better cope with the impacts of global and diffuse risks and strengthen the resilience of its neighbourhood countries and with extension - of itself, the EU needs to prioritize the global risks which not only endanger the EU and its surroundings in the long term (climate change) but can also act as major spoilers in the short term (irregular migration & geopolitical rivalries). Finally, the EU should also pay attention to multiple effects of global risks and devise strategies based on regional and country-specific differentiation.

Protracted conflicts, which negatively affect the security environment and foster the emergence of Areas of Limited Statehood (ALS) and Contested Orders (CO), are present both in the eastern and southern neighbourhoods of the European Union (EU). The aim of this policy paper is to examine the EU’s conflict management approach to protracted conflicts in its neighbourhood and analyse how the resilience paradigm can mitigate the effects of ALS/CO in the European neighbourhood. The revision of EU foreign policy in the past decade has resulted in a major turn in the narrative towards resilience. Its Global Strategy refers to building state and societal resilience in its neighbourhood as one of the EU’s key strategic priorities. Can resilience policies address the protracted conflicts in the EU’s surrounding? Obstacles include the policies of other external actors, mainly Russia in the East but also Turkey in the South.

In Egypt and Tunisia, where violent radicalization has increased in recent years, official religious institutions have been tasked by the governments with the mission of countering ‘deviant’ ideas by preaching ‘moderate’ Islam. In order for religious institutions to play a positive role in preventing violent radicalization, they should start by consolidating their status as legitimate religious actors independent of political authorities, and then compete with their ideas in a plural religious sphere, rather than impose them on Muslims as ‘the true Islam’. While the EU could encourage the political regimes in both countries to ensure the independence of these religious institutions, it should engage cautiously with state religious institutions so as to not unintentionally damage their legitimacy in the religious sphere.

Der Beitrag liefert einen Überblick über das Verhältnis von sozialen Medien und Emotionen sowie Affekten. Nach einer Einführung in die sozialwissenschaftliche Emotionsforschung und affect studies, die Emotionen als wesentliche Bausteine sozialer Ordnung sichtbar machen, werden die wechselseitig konstituierenden Bedingungen von Emotionen und sozialen Medien herausgearbeitet. Emotionen werden medial erzeugt, geteilt, archiviert und reguliert. Soziale Medien lassen sich damit als Affektgeneratoren fassen. Die Architektur sozialer Netzwerkplattformen zielt maßgeblich auf die Affizierung ihrer Nutzer*innen ab. Durch vielfach geteilten Hass oder Empörung, Erregung oder empathische Solidarität wird die Verweildauer auf der Plattform und die Intensität der Nutzung gesteigert. Solche Interaktionen lassen sich als affektive Medienpraktiken fassen. Sie können bspw. in Form von Memes als kritische, ironische oder subversive Aneignung von Medienangeboten auftreten, die jedoch den ökonomisch grundierten Affordanzen der Plattform nicht entkommen können. Auf diese Weise werden sie zu wesentlichen Bestandteilen einer affektiven Ökonomie.

In dem Beitrag diskutieren wir die Ergebnisse einer explorativen PhotoVoice-Studie zum emotionalen Erleben von Heranwachsenden. Mit der Aufforderung „Mache Fotos von Menschen, Orten oder Dingen, die eine wichtige Rolle in Deinem Leben spielen und die in Dir negative, positive oder auch gemischte Gefühle hervorrufen,“ wandten wir uns an die Schüler*innen eines Berliner Gymnasiums aller Jahrgangsstufen mit dem Ziel Einblick in ihr alltägliches Gefühlsleben zu erhalten. Ein zentrales und überraschendes Ergebnis dieser PhotoVoice-Studie bildet die große Bedeutung, die affektiven Erinnerungspraktiken im Leben der Schüler*innen zukommt: Mädchen und Jungen aller Klassenstufen nahmen mit den von ihnen angefertigten Fotografien vielfach Bezug auf Objekte, die mit der Erinnerung emotional bedeutsamer Ereignisse, Beziehungen oder Lebensabschnitte in Zusammenhang standen. Diese häufige Bezugnahme auf unterschiedliche Erinnerungsobjekte deutet an, dass zurückliegende Erfahrungen eine zentrale Rolle im Selbstverständnis und emotionalen Erleben der Schüler*innen spielen. Bedeutsam ist, dass den Objekten bewusst ein Symbolgehalt zugesprochen wurde. Sie sollten die Erinnerung an einen Moment oder eine Beziehung und die damit einhergehenden Gefühle speichern. Einleitend werden wir zunächst Fragestellung, Zielsetzung, Sample sowie das methodische Vorgehen der empirischen Studie beschreiben, um uns dann genauer mit den methodologischen Besonderheiten des angewandten PhotoVoice-Verfahrens auseinanderzusetzen. Anschließend diskutieren wir die Ergebnisse der Studie im Rahmen ausgewählter kultur- und sozialwissenschaftlicher sowie (entwicklungs-)psychologischer Theorieansätze und argumentieren, dass der affektive Umgang mit Zeit, Vergangenheit und Vergänglichkeit eine wichtige Dimension der Gefühlsbildung und Emotionsentwicklung darstellt, der entscheidend durch soziale und kulturelle Prozesse moduliert wird und Rückschlüsse über gesellschaftlich geteilte Normen, Werte und Konzeptionen von Zeit, Selbst, Lebenslauf und die Bedeutung sowie Darstellung von Erinnerung zulässt. Wir möchten mit dem Beitrag die Aufmerksamkeit auf die Ontogenese des autobiographischen Gedächtnis und dessen sozio-kulturelle Grundlagen lenken, das innerhalb der sozial- und kulturanthropologischen Forschung zu Erinnerung und Gedächtnis bisher vergleichsweise wenig Beachtung erfährt.

This paper introduces a new transmission channel of banking crises where sizable cross-border bank claims on foreign countries with high domestic crisis risk enable contagion to the home economy. This asset-side channel opposes traditional views that see banking crises originating from either domestic credit booms or from cross-border borrowing. I propose a combined model that predicts banking crises using both domestic and foreign factors. For developed economies, the channel is predictive of crises irrespective of other types of capital flows, while it is entirely inactive for emerging economies. I show that policy makers can significantly enhance current early warning models by incorporating exposure-based risk from cross-border lending.