The dynamics in a confined turbulent convection flow is dominated by multiple long-lived macroscopic circulation states that are visited subsequently by the system in a Markov-type hopping process. In the present work, we analyze the short transition paths between these subsequent macroscopic system states by a data-driven learning algorithm that extracts the low-dimensional transition manifold and the related new coordinates, which we term collective variables, in the state space of the complex turbulent flow. We therefore transfer and extend concepts for conformation transitions in stochastic microscopic systems, such as in the dynamics of macromolecules, to a deterministic macroscopic flow. Our analysis is based on long-term direct numerical simulation trajectories of turbulent convection in a closed cubic cell at a Prandtl number Pr=0.7 and Rayleigh numbers Ra=106 and 107 for a time lag of 105 convective free-fall time units. The simulations resolve vortices and plumes of all physically relevant scales, resulting in a state space spanned by more than 3.5 million degrees of freedom. The transition dynamics between the large-scale circulation states can be captured by the transition manifold analysis with only two collective variables, which implies a reduction of the data dimension by a factor of more than a million. Our method demonstrates that cessations and subsequent reversals of the large-scale flow are unlikely in the present setup, and thus it paves the way for the development of efficient reduced-order models of the macroscopic complex nonlinear dynamical system.
