This paper analyzes the extent to which neo-cleavage theory can explain democratic backsliding in the European Union, focusing on the role of the GAL/TAN cleavage and an alternative explanation, populism. It brings together different factors into a causal model based on the willingness-opportunity metatheoretical framework, which is then evaluated empirically using the Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). The results indicate that both TAN ideological stance and populism provide two alternative motivations for democratic backsliding, but do not produce backsliding in the absence of certain opportunities.
