Predicting the spread of invasive species and understanding the role of niche dynamics in niche transferability are critical challenges in the management of biological invasions, both theoretically and practically. We used complementary species distribution modelling approaches, such as multivariate niche analysis and reciprocal distribution models, to test the niche conservatism hypothesis and to predict the potential distribution of the fishhook waterflea, Cercopagis pengoi. Our analysis indicated a significant similarity between its native and invasive ranges, suggesting that a subset of the Ponto-Caspian propagules may have been the founders of European populations. However, our results contradict the niche conservatism hypothesis, showing that C. pengoi has not fully occupied the available niche within its current invasive ranges. Moreover, we observed a notable niche expansion, reflecting a significant shift in niche following its intercontinental introduction in North America. Given the suitability of new environments for the expansion of C. pengoi and its tendency to evade detection prior to population surges, we recommend a focus on early detection through monitoring of both water columns and bottom sediments. This should be complemented by strict enforcement of ballast water regulations to curtail its spread in North America, Europe, and other suitable non-native regions globally.
