The question of whether individual effort can mitigate the educational resource deficits linked to family background has been extensively debated in academic literature. Early studies suggested that differential effort might perpetuate or reinforce existing inequalities, as individuals from higher socioeconomic backgrounds were thought to possess certain “middle-class habits.” However, more recent research contends that increased effort has the potential to offset or even compensate for family background disadvantages. It is widely acknowledged that dedicating more time and energy to learning can help narrow the achievement gap among students. Nevertheless, limited attention has been given to understanding the relative contributions of effort and contextual factors in shaping and potentially narrowing or widening performance disparities between students. In the realm of educational equality, extensive empirical evidence suggests that educational outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay among various factors. Particularly, students’ circumstances encompassing the family and school environment, are intricately related to their academic achievements. These include the level of effort exerted by students, parents, and schools. In addition, cognitive ability and other individual factors that are conceptualized as innate endowment, have been shown to play a crucial role in shaping academic achievement. Despite the sophistication and breadth of research addressing these factors, there is still a dearth of studies, particularly within the Chinese context, that comprehensively investigate the relative significance of those factors in influencing students’ learning progress and how they synergistically interact to give rise to disparities in academic achievement. Based on this observation, the question emerges: To what extent do circumstantial or effort-related factors exert substantial predictive effects on educational outcomes when the influence of innate endowments, such as cognitive ability, is adequately controlled? Meanwhile, it is essential to recognize that socioeconomic background continues to exert implicit influences on educational outcomes, giving rise to careful consideration in the analysis. By delving into these intricate dynamics, this thesis aims to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of effort in educational inequality. It seeks to closely examine the relationships between the efforts made by families, schools, and students, and their respective impacts on educational outcomes. To achieve this goal, the following research questions will be explored: 1) What is the relative contribution of family support compared to school input in influencing students’ academic achievement? 2) Can individual effort be considered an independent variable in determining students’ academic success, and how does the level of student effort vary across different socioeconomic statuses? 3) If effort is indeed a distinct factor in determining academic achievement, which individual or group variable related to student, parental, and school effort is the most predictive of students’ academic outcomes? This thesis addresses the aforementioned research questions by conducting three sub-studies utilizing a robust panel data set from China. Its primary objective is to identify the factors that contribute to disparities in academic outcomes and forecast the areas where such disparities are more likely to occur. To achieve this, the analysis begins by employing both relative and absolute variable importance frameworks to examine potential predictors that significantly influence unequal academic performance. By doing so, it aims to uncover the key determinants of academic obstacles faced by junior high school students within the Chinese educational context. Furthermore, the thesis leverages machine learning regression models such as Random Forest, Lasso, Adaboost, and SVR. These models enable the extraction of the most influential features that play a crucial role in determining academic achievement. Regarding the influence of cognitive ability on educational outcomes, the thesis adopts a comprehensive approach across its studies. In Study I, the innate endowment effect is treated as a clustered controlled variable, focusing on the combined impact of gender and personal characteristics based on family origin. It is important to note that this specifically excludes other dispositional (genetic) effects, such as noncognitive and cognitive abilities or talent. Additionally, in Study II and Study III, cognitive ability is explicitly considered as a control variable. In both studies, the outcomes of a cognitive ability test that was part of the Chinese panel data were used. This allows for a more precise examination of the role of cognitive ability and enhances the overall validity and reliability of the research findings. The first sub-study of this thesis aimed to assess the relative importance of family support and school input variables in shaping students’ academic achievements. Specifically, it sought to determine whether family support or accumulated school resources had a greater influence on students’ academic success. By examining the contribution of these variables to the R2 value of student achievement, the sub-study identified parents’ highest educational level as the most significant determinant, surpassing other individual factors. The findings revealed that family support had a twice as significant impact on junior high students’ academic achievement compared to school input. Furthermore, family support variables consistently demonstrated greater predictive power for students’ educational outcomes across all models, outperforming school input variables. Through further analysis using quantile regression, it was observed that students with lower academic performance were particularly influenced by their parents’ educational level and family cultural capital, rather than the educational level of their teachers. The fingdings underscore the prominent role of family support in determining students’ academic achievements, emphasizing the significance of parental educational background and family cultural capital. The sub-study provides valuable insights into the relative importance of family support and school input, shedding light on the factors that have the greatest impact on student outcomes. The second sub-study aimed to explore the independent role of effort as a predictor of academic achievement and its interaction with family socioeconomic status (SES). Despite the strong emphasis placed on academic success by Chinese families, there is limited research examining the relationship between effort and academic achievement, with educational disparities often attributed to structural and contextual factors, such as family SES. This sub-study utilized data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS 2013, 2014) to examine the influence of effort on educational outcomes and the interplay between effort and family SES. The results of the sub-study revealed that effort positively impacts academic performance, although to a lesser extent than family SES. Furthermore, the study found that students from low-SES backgrounds tend to exert more effort compared to their high-SES counterparts, and the effect of effort is more pronounced among low-SES students. These findings underscore the significance of individual effort in academic success, particularly among students from low-SES backgrounds. They also suggest that policies aimed at promoting academic achievement should focus on enhancing motivation and engagement to support students’ efforts, especially for those facing socioeconomic disadvantages. By shedding light on the role of effort and its interaction with family SES in influencing academic outcomes, this sub-study provides valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and educators. Recognizing the importance of individual effort alongside structural factors can contribute to the development of more comprehensive strategies to reduce educational disparities and foster equitable educational opportunities for all students. The third sub-study aimed to enhance the prediction of students’ academic outcomes by identifying more effective predictors or groups of predictors using machine learning techniques. This sub-study proposed that the efforts made by students, parents, and schools are interconnected and collectively contribute to determining academic achievements. Leveraging data from the China Education Panel Survey conducted between 2013 and 2015, this sub-study employed four widely used machine learning techniques, namely Lasso, Random Forest, AdaBoost, and Support Vector Regression, known for their effectiveness in prediction tasks, to examine the predictive power of individual predictors and variable categories. The findings of this sub-study unveiled that the efforts exerted by each group have varying impacts on academic exam results, with parents’ demanding requirements emerging as the most influential individual predictor of academic performance. Moreover, the study revealed that the category of school effort has a greater impact compared to parental and student effort when controlling for various social-origin-based characteristics. Additionally, the findings highlighted significant gender differences among Chinese junior high students, with school effort exhibiting a greater impact on academic achievement for girls, while parental effort showed a greater impact for boys. By contributing to the current understanding of the independent role of effort in the learning process, both theoretically and empirically, this study offers valuable insights. The findings have significant implications for education policies aimed at enhancing school effort, underscoring the need for gender-specific interventions to improve academic performance for all students. In the concluding section of this thesis, a comprehensive discussion is presented that synthesizes the key findings from the three sub-studies and situates them within the broader research landscape of sociology, education, and psychology pertaining to the relationship between circumstances, effort, and academic achievements. The purpose of this discussion is to provide an overview of the existing knowledge in these fields and underscore the novel contributions of the present thesis. The discussion emphasizes the significance of the current research in advancing our understanding of educational inequality and offers insights for future research directions. By addressing gaps in the literature and shedding light on the interplay between circumstances, effort, and academic outcomes, this thesis lays the groundwork for further exploration and investigation in this important area. Furthermore, the findings of this thesis have practical implications for parents, schools, and policymakers in China. The discussion highlights the importance of collective effort, involving all stakeholders, in fostering improved academic performance for all students. It underscores the need for collaborative initiatives and interventions that recognize the significance of circumstances and effort in narrowing educational disparities.
