Ecosystem functions and services are under threat from anthropogenic global change at a planetary scale. Microorganisms are the dominant drivers of nearly all ecosystem functions and therefore ecosystem-scale responses are dependent on responses of resident microbial communities. However, the specific characteristics of microbial communities that contribute to ecosystem stability under anthropogenic stress are unknown. We evaluated bacterial drivers of ecosystem stability by generating wide experimental gradients of bacterial diversity in soils, applying stress to the soils, and measuring responses of several microbial-mediated ecosystem processes, including C and N cycling rates and soil enzyme activities. Some processes (e.g., C mineralization) exhibited positive correlations with bacterial diversity and losses of diversity resulted in reduced stability of nearly all processes. However, comprehensive evaluation of all potential bacterial drivers of the processes revealed that bacterial α diversity per se was never among the most important predictors of ecosystem functions. Instead, key predictors included total microbial biomass, 16S gene abundance, bacterial ASV membership, and abundances of specific prokaryotic taxa and functional groups (e.g., nitrifying taxa). These results suggest that bacterial α diversity may be a useful indicator of soil ecosystem function and stability, but that other characteristics of bacterial communities are stronger statistical predictors of ecosystem function and better reflect the biological mechanisms by which microbial communities influence ecosystems. Overall, our results provide insight into the role of microorganisms in supporting ecosystem function and stability by identifying specific characteristics of bacterial communities that are critical for understanding and predicting ecosystem responses to global change.
