dc.contributor.author
Kempf, Philipp
dc.contributor.author
Moernaut, Jasper
dc.date.accessioned
2021-08-09T10:18:35Z
dc.date.available
2021-08-09T10:18:35Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/31557
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-31289
dc.description.abstract
Determining the aperiodicity of large earthquake recurrences is key to forecast future rupture behavior. Aperiodicity is classically expressed as the coefficient of variation of recurrence intervals, though the recent trend to express it as burstiness is more intuitive and avoids minor inaccuracies. Due to the underestimation of burstiness in records with a low number of recurrence intervals, the paradigm is to obtain long paleoseismic records with many events. Here, we present a suite of synthetic paleoseismic records designed around the Weibull and inverse Gaussian distributions that demonstrate that age uncertainty relative to the mean recurrence interval causes overestimation of burstiness. The effects of overestimation and underestimation interact and give complex results for accurate estimates of aperiodicity. Furthermore, we show that the way recurrence intervals are sampled from a paleoseismic record can have strong influences on the resulting statistic and its implication for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Comparing values of burstiness between paleoseismic records should therefore be done with caution.
en
dc.format.extent
16 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
synthetic earthquake records
en
dc.subject
aga uncertainty
en
dc.subject
recurrence intervals
en
dc.subject
coefficient of variation
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::550 Geowissenschaften
dc.title
Age Uncertainty in Recurrence Analysis of Paleoseismic Records
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber
e2021JB021996
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1029/2021JB021996
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.number
8
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
126
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB021996
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Geologische Wissenschaften / Fachrichtung Tektonik und Sedimentäre Systeme
refubium.funding
DEAL Wiley
refubium.note.author
Die Publikation wurde aus Open Access Publikationsgeldern der Freien Universität Berlin gefördert.
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
2169-9356