Responses, Resilience, and Remaining Risks in the Eastern Neighbourhood: Evidence from Radicalization and Migration

Abstract

This working paper capitalizes on EU-LISTCO’s analytical framework to explore the influence of migration and radicalization on risks created by areas of limited statehood (ALS) and contested orders (CO) in the Eastern Neighbourhood (EN). The paper argues that EN is characterized both by ALS and CO and examines the possibility of governance breakdown and violent conflict in the context of migration and radicalization processes. Currently, countries like Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine experience internal and external problems due to unresolved conflicts, corruption, or state capture. On the other hand, such issues often play out in a political arena among different political, economic, and societal actors with frequent involvement by external powers, especially the Russian Federation. Based on this analysis and methodology, we argue that neither migration nor radicalization in the EN will lead to governance breakdown or violent conflict in the EU neighbourhood in short- or medium-term time horizons. Although eventual escalation of radicalism to extremism or massive irregular migration from the EN could bring negative effects for the EU stabilization, countries in the EN region have sufficient components of societal resilience in place to avoid becoming a danger to the EU’s security.