Background: in patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET), the mTOR inhibitor everolimus is associated with significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS). This study evaluated the lesional asphericity (ASP) in pretherapeutic somatostatin receptor (SSR) imaging as the first imaging-based prognostic marker for PFS.
Methods: this retrospective bicentric cohort study included 30 patients (f = 13, median age, 66.5 (48-81) years) with pretherapeutic [111In-DTPA0]octreotide scintigraphy (Octreoscan®). ASP of functional volumes of up to three leading lesions per patient (n = 74) was calculated after semiautomatic, background-adapted segmentation. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression regarding PFS for clinical factors and the maximum ASP per patient was obtained.
Results: all 30 patients showed metachronous or progressive liver metastases. ASP, primary tumor site, metastases pattern, and prior peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) were significantly associated with PFS in univariable Cox regression. Only ASP > 12.9% (hazard ratio (HR), 3.33; p = 0.024) and prior PRRT (HR, 0.35; p = 0.043) remained significant in multivariable Cox. Median PFS was 6.7 months for ASP > 12.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.1-11.4 months) versus 14.4 (12.5-16.3) months for ASP ≤ 12.9% (log-rank, p = 0.028).
Conclusion: pretherapeutic ASP of SSR positive lesions independently predicted PFS for treatment with everolimus in GEP-NET. ASP may supplement risk-benefit assessment before patient inclusion to treatment.
