Climate Clubs and the alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS): Friends or Foes?

Abstract

Every country is a polluter and a victim of anthropogenic climate change. Inextricably linked, every greenhouse gas emitted from every corner of the world changes the atmospheric composition of the climate system. Viewing the climate change problem from this lens, every person from every country must play its part in mitigating and adapting to climate change. And every country is a developing country, in the sense of universality as conveyed by “Transforming Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” (2030 Agenda). Goal 13 of the 2030 Agenda specifically recognises the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the primary forum of global climate governance. However, progress for legally binding quantified emissions reductions limitations (QERLs) mitigation targets under the UNFCCC-style multilateralism framework has yet to produce an effective response to the threat of global warming. The gap between currently pledged QERLs trajectories and global emissions levels consistent with limiting global warming to 2oC Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures remains large. It is therefore not surprising that a growing number of minilateralism-style proposals (e.g. climate clubs) have emerged in the literature as a way forward to promote QERLs actions in the post 2015 Paris Climate Summit era. This paper explores how climate clubs could potentially assist in catalysing greater international cooperation for effective QERLs actions. The paper then specifically investigates how the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) could assist in pioneering emerging international cooperation efforts to establish climate clubs to fast track QERLs actions. What makes AOSIS’s epic quest to be a member of the international climate clubs movement so important is the question of whether it can help navigate the international community towards using climate minilaterism-style clubs to complement UNFCCC-style multilaterism in the post 2015 Paris Climate Summit era.