Climate Variability and Local Environmental Stressors Influencing Migration in Nang Rong, Thailand

Abstract

Scholars point to climate change, often in the form of more frequent and severe drought, as a potential driver of migration in the developing world, particularly in populations that rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. To date, however, there have been few large-scale, longitudinal studies that explore the relationship between climate change and migration. This study significantly extends current scholarship by evaluating distinctive effects of slow onset climate change and short-term extreme events upon different migration outcomes. Our analysis models the effect of the environment--as measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the occurrence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events—on migration out of Nang Rong. Our preliminary findings indicate that predominantly dry El Niño periods of 24 months duration lead to outmigration, while predominantly wetter La Niña periods of 12-month duration reduce outmigration. Clustered monthly patterns of annual NDVI fluctuation indicate that villagers living in pixels that exhibit early, consistently higher, and steep rising green-up are less likely to migrate out in the subsequent year.