Objectives To identify biomarkers at the gene expression level to predict response to methotrexate (MTX) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
Methods MTX-naïve patients with RA were started on MTX and followed up over three months. The disease activity score 28 (DAS28) was used to classify patients into responders and non-responders. Genome-wide gene expression analysis was performed in CD4 + and CD14 + mononuclear cells sampled from whole blood at baseline to identify differentially expressed genes in responders versus non-responders. Gene selection methods and prediction modelling obtained the most relevant differentially expressed genes. A logistic regression prediction model was subsequently constructed and validated via bootstrapping. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve was calculated to judge model quality.
Results Seventy-nine patients with RA (53.4 ± 13.9 years, 74.7% females) were enrolled, and 70 finished the study with a documented treatment EULAR response (77.1% responders). Forty-six differentially expressed genes were found. The most promising genes were KRTAP4-11, LOC101927584, and PECAM1 in CD4 + cells and PSMD5 and ID1 in CD14 + cells. The final prediction model using these genes reached an AUC of 90%; the validation set’s AUC was 82%.
Conclusions Our prediction model constructed via genome-wide gene expression analysis in CD4 + and CD14 + mononuclear cells yielded excellent predictions. Our findings necessitate confirmation in other cohorts of MTX-naïve RA patients. Especially if used in conjunction with previously identified clinical and laboratory (bio)markers, our results could help predict response to MTX in RA to guide treatment decisions.
