Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany

Abstract

This study explores the voting potential for the new left-authoritarian German party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). We focus on the congruence regarding three policy dimensions. We identify three primary issue dimensions underlying the agreement with BSW’s policies: cultural issues, where BSW advocates for conservative policies; economic issues, emphasising left-wing stances on redistribution and the structure of the economic system; and foreign policy issues, focusing on ‘peace-oriented’ strategies, scepticism of NATO and the USA, and inclusion of Russia in European security frameworks. We build our analytical framework on the Michigan model and the proximity model of voting. Our findings reveal that socio-demographic characteristics – age, education, gender, and east/west location – influence the congruence with BSW’s policies. Older voters, less educated individuals, women, and east Germans exhibit greater congruence with BSW’s ideological stances across all three dimensions. The east-west divide is particularly pronounced. We demonstrate that congruence on the three issue dimensions significantly predicts the propensity to vote (PTV) for BSW. Once we introduce policy congruence to the models, all socio-demographic factors, including an east/west variable, are not statistically significant anymore. Our results support the classic “funnel of causality”, where socio-demographics shape political attitudes, which in turn drive voting behaviour. Contrary to assumptions that BSW’s appeal is related to a vague notion of “east Germanness,” our results indicate that ideological proximity explains the party’s higher electoral potential in east Germany.