Impacts of deforestation on drought patterns across multiple time scales in Europe: insights from LUCAS regional climate models

Abstract

Land cover changes, particularly deforestation, exert significant biophysical influences on regional climates, yet their impacts on drought remain inadequately understood. This study employs seven regional climate models from the Land Use and Climate Across Scales project under the EURO-CORDEX framework to investigate deforestation’s effect on multi time scale droughts across Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Simulations contrast idealized scenarios of maximum forest cover and grassland to evaluate climatological responses. The multi-model median results reveal intensified droughts post-deforestation, especially in northern Europe for long-term droughts at the 24-month scale (SPEI24 decrease of approximately 0.5). Pronounced seasonal variability emerges: winter drying (SPEI01 reduction of ∼0.3) and summer wetting (SPEI01 increase of ∼0.25) in Scandinavia, driven largely by shifts in potential evapotranspiration rather than precipitation. Model discrepancies underscore that employing multiple models under a unified framework and protocol reduces extreme or biased outcomes in assessing multi-time scale drought responses to land cover change, compared to reliance on single-model analyses. Regional contrasts underscore heightened drought risks in water-limited Mediterranean areas compared to seasonally modulated impacts in northern Europe. These findings advocate the need for region-specific land management strategies to mitigate climate risks and inform policies addressing forest change biophysical consequences in Europe.