The state house prices make: the political elasticities of house prices and rents

Abstract

Fiscal policy allocation is not purely determined by the labour-capital conflict, but increasingly around cross-class housing coalitions. Although rising house prices are conventionally understood as drivers of fiscal austerity, this view has been challenged. Alternatively, governments may use fiscal policies to support house price growth to meet the primary economic interests of homeowners and compensate non-homeowners through the welfare system. Using an econometric analysis of 19 advanced economies between 1980 and 2018, we show house prices have positive effects on taxation revenue as well as fiscal spending on public investment, welfare and education. A second multi-level analysis provides a political explanation of this observed outcome by demonstrating parties respond to rising house prices by proposing more welfare and public investment spending in their manifestos. Conterminously rising house prices and rents also lead to greater welfare spending, suggesting governments use fiscal policy to protect those excluded from homeownership from labour market risks.