Explainable machine learning for labquake prediction using catalog-driven features

Abstract

Recently, Machine learning (ML) has been widely utilized for laboratory earthquake (labquake) prediction using various types of data. This study pioneers in time to failure (TTF) prediction based on ML using acoustic emission (AE) records from three laboratory stick-slip experiments performed on Westerly granite samples with naturally fractured rough faults, more similar to the heterogeneous fault structures in the nature. 47 catalog-driven seismo-mechanical and statistical features are extracted introducing some new features based on focal mechanism. A regression voting ensemble of Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks predicts TTF with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 70% on the test dataset. Feature importance analysis revealed that AE rate, correlation integral, event proximity, and focal mechanism-based features are the most important features for TTF prediction. Results reveal that the network uses all information among the features for prediction, including general trends in high correlated features as well as fine details about local variations and fault evolution involved in low correlated features. Therefore, some highly correlated and physically meaningful features may be considered less important for TTF prediction due to their correlation with other important features. Our study provides a ground for applying catalog-driven to constrain TTF of complex heterogeneous rough faults, which is capable to be developed for real application.