dc.contributor.author
Nissen, Katrin M.
dc.contributor.author
Wilde, Martina
dc.contributor.author
Kreuzer, Thomas M.
dc.contributor.author
Wohlers, Annika
dc.contributor.author
Damm, Bodo
dc.contributor.author
Ulbrich, Uwe
dc.date.accessioned
2023-10-13T07:24:13Z
dc.date.available
2023-10-13T07:24:13Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/41099
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-40820
dc.description.abstract
The effect of climate change on rockfalls in the German low mountain regions is investigated following two different approaches. The first approach uses a logistic regression model that describes the combined effect of precipitation, freeze–thaw cycles, and fissure water on rockfall probability. The climate change signal for the past 6 decades is analysed by applying the model to meteorological observations. The possible effect of climate change until the end of the century is explored by applying the statistical model to the output of a multi-model ensemble of 23 regional climate scenario simulations. It is found that the number of days per year exhibiting an above-average probability for rockfalls has mostly been decreasing during the last few decades. Statistical significance is, however, present at only a few sites. A robust and statistically significant decrease can be seen in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations for Germany and neighbouring regions, locally falling below −10 % when comparing the last 30 years of the 20th century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. The most important factor determining the projected decrease in rockfall probability is a reduction in the number of freeze–thaw cycles expected under future climate conditions.
For the second approach four large-scale meteorological patterns that are associated with enhanced rockfall probability are identified from reanalysis data. The frequency of all four patterns exhibits a seasonal cycle that maximises in the cold half of the year (winter and spring). Trends in the number of days that can be assigned to these patterns are determined both in meteorological reanalysis data and in climate simulations. In the reanalysis no statistically significant trend is found. For the future scenario simulations all climate models show a statistically significant decrease in the number of rockfall-promoting weather situations.
en
dc.format.extent
12 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
rockfall probability
en
dc.subject
climate change
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
dc.title
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue
8
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishername
Copernicus Publications
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart
2737
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend
2748
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
2023/23
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Meteorologie
refubium.note.author
Die Publikation wurde aus Open Access Publikationsgeldern der Freien Universität Berlin finanziert.
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
1684-9981