Development of a Novel Scoring Model to Estimate the Severity Grade of Mesenteric Artery Stenosis

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to derive a new scoring model from estimating the severity grade of mesenteric artery stenosis. We sought to analyze the relationship between the new scoring model and the development, treatment, and mortality of chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI).

Methods: This retrospective study included 242 patients (128 (53%) women and 114 (47%) men) with suspected CMI from January 2011 to December 2020. A weighted sum six-point score (CSI-score; the celiac artery is abbreviated by "C", superior mesenteric artery by "S", and inferior mesenteric artery by "I") based on the number of affected vessels and the extent and grade of the stenosis or occlusion of the involved visceral arteries was derived by maximizing the area under the ROC curve. The calculated CSI-score ranged from 0 to 22. The patients were divided according to the best cut-off point into low-score (CSI-score < 8) and high-score (CSI-score >= 8) groups.

Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the CSI-score was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.82-0.91). The best cut-off point of "8" represented the highest value of Youden's index (0.58) with a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 72%. The cohort was divided according to the cut-off point into a low-score group (n = 100 patients, 41%) and high-score group (n = 142 patients, 59%) and according to the clinical presentation into a CMI group (n = 109 patients, 45%) and non-CMI group (n = 133 patients, 55%). The median CSI-score for all patients was 10 (range: 0 -22). High-scoring patients showed statistically significant higher rates of coronary artery disease (54% vs. 36%, p = 0.007), chronic renal insufficiency (50% vs. 30%, p = 0.002), and peripheral arterial disease (57% vs. 16%, p < 0.001). A total of 109 (45%) patients underwent invasive treatment of the visceral arteries and were more often in the high-score group (69% vs. 11%, p < 0.001). Of those, 79 (72%) patients underwent primary endovascular treatment, and 44 (40%) patients underwent primary open surgery or open conversion after endovascular treatment. Sixteen (7%) patients died during the follow-up, with a statistically significant difference between high- and low-scoring patients (9% vs. 0%, p = 0.008). The score stratification showed that the percentage of patients treated with endovascular and open surgical methods, the recurrence of the stenosis or failure of the endovascular treatment, the need for a bypass procedure, and the mortality rates significantly increased in the subgroups. The CSI-score demonstrated an excellent ability to discriminate between patients who needed treatment and those who did not, with an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.91). Additionally, the CSI-score's ability to predict the patients' mortality was moderate, with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.62-0.83).

Conclusions: The new scoring model can estimate the severity grade of the stenosis of the mesenteric arteries. Our study showed a strong association of the score with the presence of chronic mesenteric ischemia, the need for treatment, the need for open surgery, and mortality.