A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of the Impact of Syrian Crisis on Agricultural Land Abandonment in Yarmouk River Basin

Abstract

In this study, we implemented a remote sensing-based approach for monitoring abandoned agricultural land in the Yarmouk River Basin (YRB) in Southern Syria and Northern Jordan during the Syrian crisis. A time series analysis for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) was conducted using 1650 multi-temporal images from Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 between 1986 and 2021. We analyzed the agricultural phenological profiles and investigated the impact of the Syrian crisis on agricultural activities in YRB. The analysis was performed using JavaScript commands in Google Earth Engine. The results confirmed the impact of the Syrian crisis on agricultural land use. The phenological characteristics of NDVI and NDMI during the crisis (2013–2021) were compared to the phenological profiles for the period before the crisis (1986–2010). The NDVI and NDMI profiles had smooth, bell-shaped, and single beak NDVI and NDMI values during the period of crisis in comparison to those irregular phenological profiles for the period before the crisis or during the de-escalation/reconciliation period in the study area. The maximum average NDVI and NDMI values was found in March during the crisis, indicating the progress of natural vegetation and fallow land, while they fluctuated between March and April before the crisis or during the de-escalation/reconciliation period, indicating regular agricultural and cultivation practices.