A multi-level, time-series network analysis of the impact of youth peacebuilding on quality peace

Abstract

Purpose

Over 60% of armed conflicts re-occur; the seed of future conflict is sown even as a peace agreement is signed. The cyclical nature of war calls for a focus on youth who can disrupt this pattern over time. Addressing this concern, the developmental peace-building model calls for a dynamic, multi-level and longitudinal approach. Using an innovative statistical approach, this study aims to investigate the associations among four youth peace-building dimensions and quality peace.

Design/methodology/approach

Multi-level time-series network analysis of a data set containing 193 countries and spanning the years between 2011 and 2020 was performed. This statistical approach allows for complex modelling that can reveal new patterns of how different youth peace-building dimensions (i.e. education, engagement, information, inclusion), identified through rapid evidence assessment, promote quality peace over time. Such a methodology not only assesses between-country differences but also within-country change.

Findings

While the within-country contemporaneous network shows positive links for education, the temporal network shows significant lagged effects for all four dimensions on quality peace. The between-country network indicates significant direct effects of education and information, on average, and indirect effects of inclusion and engagement, on quality peace.

Originality/value

This approach demonstrates a novel application of multi-level time-series network analysis to explore the dynamic development of quality peace, capturing both stability and change. The analysis illustrates how youth peace-building dimensions impact quality peace in the macro-system globally. This investigation of quality peace thus illustrates that the science of peace does not necessitate violent conflict.