International time trends in sudden unexpected infant death, 1969–2012

Abstract

Background: Sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) - including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) - continues to be a major contributor to infant mortality worldwide. Our objective was to analyse time trends and to identify country-clusters.

Methods: The National Statistical Offices of 52 countries provided the number of deaths and live births (1969-2012). We calculated infant mortality rates per 1000 live births for SUID, SIDS, and all-cause mortality. Overall, 29 countries provided sufficient data for time course analyses of SUID. To sensitively model change over time, we smoothed the curves of mortality rates (1980-2010). We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify clusters of time trends for SUID and SIDS, including all-cause infant mortality.

Results: All-cause infant mortality declined from 28.5 to 4.8 per 1000 live births (mean 12.4; 95% confidence interval 12.0-12.9) between 1969 and 2012. The cluster analysis revealed four country-clusters. Clusters 1 and 2 mostly contained countries showing the typical peak of SUID mortality during the 1980s. Cluster 1 had higher SUID mortality compared to cluster 2. All-cause infant mortality was low in both clusters but higher in cluster 1 compared to cluster 2. Clusters 3 and 4 had low rates of SUID without a peak during the 1980s. Cluster 3 had the highest all-cause infant mortality of all clusters. Cluster 4 had an intermediate all-cause infant mortality. The time trends of SUID and SIDS mortality were similar.

Conclusions: The country-specific time trends in SUID varied considerably. The identification of country-clusters may promote research into how changes in sleep position, smoking, immunisation, or other factors are related to our findings.