dc.contributor.author
Cacace, M.
dc.contributor.author
Hofmann, H.
dc.contributor.author
Shapiro, Serge A.
dc.date.accessioned
2022-02-04T09:37:41Z
dc.date.available
2022-02-04T09:37:41Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/33885
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-33604
dc.description.abstract
Seismicity associated with subsurface operations is a major societal concern. It is therefore critical to improve predictions of the induced seismic hazard. Current statistical approaches account for the physics of pore pressure increase only. Here, we present a novel mathematical model that generalises adopted statistics for use in arbitrary injection/production protocols and applies to arbitrary physical processes. In our model, seismicity is driven by a normalised integral over the spatial reservoir volume of induced variations in frictional Coulomb stress, which—combined with the seismogenic index—provides a dimensionless proxy of the induced seismic hazard. Our model incorporates the classical pressure diffusion based and poroelastic seismogenic index models as special cases. Applying our approach to modeling geothermal systems, we find that seismicity rates are sensitive to imposed fluid-pressure rates, temperature variations, and tectonic conditions. We further demonstrate that a controlled injection protocol can decrease the induced seismic risk and that thermo-poroelastic stress transfer results in a larger spatial seismic footprint and in higher-magnitude events than does direct pore pressure impact for the same amount of injected volume and hydraulic energy. Our results, validated against field observations, showcase the relevance of the novel approach to forecast seismic hazards induced by subsurface activities.
en
dc.format.extent
10 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Natural hazards
en
dc.subject
subsurface operations
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::550 Geowissenschaften
dc.title
Projecting seismicity induced by complex alterations of underground stresses with applications to geothermal systems
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber
23560
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1038/s41598-021-02857-0
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Scientific Reports
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.number
1
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
11
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02857-0
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Geologische Wissenschaften / Fachrichtung Geophysik
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refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
2045-2322
refubium.resourceType.provider
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