dc.contributor.author
Moemken, Julia
dc.contributor.author
Feldmann, Hendrik
dc.contributor.author
Pinto, Joaquim G.
dc.contributor.author
Buldmann, Benjamin
dc.contributor.author
Laube, Natalie
dc.contributor.author
Kadow, Christopher
dc.contributor.author
Paxian, Andreas
dc.contributor.author
Tiedje, Bente
dc.contributor.author
Kottmeier, Christoph
dc.contributor.author
Marotzke, Jochem
dc.date.accessioned
2021-02-01T12:20:04Z
dc.date.available
2021-02-01T12:20:04Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/28890
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-28639
dc.description.abstract
Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project ("mid-term climate forecast") developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44 degrees resolution, based on the regional model COSMO-CLM using global MPI-ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user-oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead-time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation-related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and wind-based indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. Overall, we provide evidence that decadal predictive skill can be generally found at the regional scale also for extremes and user-oriented variables, demonstrating how the utility of decadal predictions can be substantially enhanced. This is a very promising first step towards impact-related modelling at the regional scale and the development of individual user-oriented products for stakeholders.
en
dc.format.extent
15 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
climate services
en
dc.subject
regional decadal predictions
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
dc.title
The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1002/joc.6824
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
International Journal of Climatology
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.number
S1
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart
E1944
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend
E1958
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
41
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6824
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Meteorologie
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refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
1097-0088
refubium.resourceType.provider
WoS-Alert