dc.contributor.author
Kakouei, Karan
dc.contributor.author
Domisch, Sami
dc.contributor.author
Kiesel, Jens
dc.contributor.author
Kail, Jochem
dc.contributor.author
Jähnig, Sonja C.
dc.date.accessioned
2020-09-29T07:41:20Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-29T07:41:20Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/28402
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-28152
dc.description.abstract
Climate change has the potential to alter the flow regimes of rivers and consequently affect the taxonomic and functional diversity of freshwater organisms. We modeled future flow regimes for the 2050 and 2090 time horizons and tested how flow regimes impact the abundance of 150 macroinvertebrate species and their functional trait compositions in one lowland river catchment (Treene) and one mountainous river catchment (Kinzig) in Europe. We used all 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX dataset under the RCP 8.5 scenario to calculate future river flows. The high variability in relative change of flow among the 16 climate models cascaded into the ecological models and resulted in substantially different predicted abundance values for single species. This variability also cascades into any subsequent analysis of taxonomic or functional freshwater biodiversity. Our results showed that flow alteration effects are different depending on the catchment and the underlying species pool. Documenting such uncertainties provides a basis for the further assessment of potential climate-change impacts on freshwater taxa distributions.
en
dc.format.extent
12 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
multimodel ensemble
en
dc.subject
change projections
en
dc.subject
vulnerability
en
dc.subject
invertebrates
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie::570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
dc.title
Climate model variability leads to uncertain predictions of the future abundance of stream macroinvertebrates
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber
2520
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1038/s41598-020-59107-y
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Scientific Reports
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.number
1
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
10
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59107-y
refubium.affiliation
Biologie, Chemie, Pharmazie
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Biologie
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
2045-2322
refubium.resourceType.provider
WoS-Alert