Anti-Regime Activism against Autocracy Support: Belarusian Anti-Regime Activists, Putin, and the War in Ukraine

Abstract

Lukashenka and his rule over Belarus are a striking example of how external autocracy support helps maintain authoritarian regimes. Still, little attention has been paid to the responses of anti- regime activists to autocracy support. Building on political opportunity literature and strategic interactionism approaches, this paper analyses qualitative interviews to study anti-regime activists’ perceptions of external autocracy support and with which strategies they respond to it. In the case of Belarus after 2020, this paper finds that anti-regime activists perceive the support by Russian president Putin to Lukashenka as a fundamental constraint to democratic change in Belarus. They respond strategically by engaging in reflection, advocacy, and support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia in the hope that Putin’s ability to support Lukashenka will be weakened. These findings show how autocracy support functions through the perception of domestic contentious actors. Also, finding that activists might decide to (support the) fight against a third player that provides autocracy support adds nuance to the variety of contentious players’ interactions in contexts of internationalized authoritarianism.