dc.contributor.author
Becker, Nico
dc.contributor.author
Rust, Henning W.
dc.contributor.author
Ulbrich, Uwe
dc.date.accessioned
2022-09-09T07:43:19Z
dc.date.available
2022-09-09T07:43:19Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/36231
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-35947
dc.description.abstract
Adverse weather conditions can have different effects on different types of road crashes. We quantify the combined effects of traffic volume and meteorological parameters on hourly probabilities of 78 different crash types using generalized additive models. Using tensor product bases, we model non-linear relationships and combined effects of different meteorological parameters. We evaluate the increase in relative risk of different crash types in case of precipitation, sun glare and high wind speeds. The largest effect of snow is found in case of single-truck crashes, while rain has a larger effect on single-car crashes. Sun glare increases the probability of multi-car crashes, in particular at higher speed limits and in case of rear-end crashes. High wind speeds increase the probability of single-truck crashes and, for all vehicle types, the risk of crashes with objects blown on the road. A comparison of the predictive power of models with and without meteorological variables shows an improvement of scores of up to 24%, which makes the models suitable for applications in real-time traffic management or impact-based warning systems. These could be used by authorities to issue weather-dependent driving restrictions or situation-specific on-board warnings to improve road safety.
en
dc.format.extent
18 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Road crashes
en
dc.subject
Traffic volume
en
dc.subject
Precipitation
en
dc.subject
Generalized Additive Model
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
dc.title
Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber
37
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
European Transport Research Review
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
14
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Meteorologie
refubium.funding
Springer Nature DEAL
refubium.note.author
Die Publikation wurde aus Open Access Publikationsgeldern der Freien Universität Berlin gefördert.
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
1866-8887