dc.contributor.author
Schwendicke, Falk
dc.contributor.author
Nitschke, Ina
dc.contributor.author
Stark, Helmut
dc.contributor.author
Micheelis, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.author
Jordan, Rainer A.
dc.date.accessioned
2022-08-18T10:01:16Z
dc.date.available
2022-08-18T10:01:16Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35948
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-35663
dc.description.abstract
Objective: This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030.
Material and methods: We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations.
Results: Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997.
Conclusions: Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors.
Clinical relevance: This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.
en
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Cross-sectional study
en
dc.subject
Epidemiology
en
dc.subject
Prediction model
en
dc.subject.ddc
600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften::610 Medizin und Gesundheit::610 Medizin und Gesundheit
dc.title
Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997–2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1007/s00784-020-03265-w
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Clinical Oral Investigations
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.number
11
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishername
Springer Nature
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
24
refubium.affiliation
Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin
refubium.funding
Springer Nature DEAL
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pmid
32246279
dcterms.isPartOf.issn
1432-6981
dcterms.isPartOf.eissn
1436-3771