Climate change does not decouple interactions between a central-place-foraging predator and its migratory prey

Abstract

Little is known about potential cascading effects of climate change on the ability of predators to exploit mobile aggregations of prey with a spatiotemporal distribution largely determined by climatic conditions. If predators employ central-place foraging when rearing offspring, the ability of parents to locate sufficient prey could be reduced by climate change. In the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, migratory species dominate mammalian herbivore biomass. These migratory herds exploit nutrient-rich vegetation on the southern plains in the rainy season and surface water in the northwest in the dry season. Female spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta breed throughout the year and use long-distance central-place-foraging “commuting trips” to migratory herds to fuel lactation for ≥12 months. Changes in rainfall patterns that alter prey movements may decrease the ability of mothers to locate profitable foraging areas and thus increase their overall commuting effort, particularly for high-ranking females that have priority of access to food resources within their clan territory and thus less commuting experience. In hyena clan territories, this may be reflected by a decrease in migratory herd presence and a decrease in the presence of lactating females, as maternal den presence represents the opposite of commuting effort. We investigated the strength of the relationship between rainfall volume, migratory herd presence in three hyena clan territories, and the responses of lactating females to this climate/prey relationship in terms of maternal den presence, using an observation-based dataset spanning three decades. The probability of migratory herd presence in hyena clan territories increased with the amount of rainfall 2 months earlier, and maternal den presence increased with migratory herd presence. Rainfall volume substantially increased over 30 years, whereas the presence of migratory herds in hyena clans and the strength of the relationship between rainfall and migratory herd presence decreased. Hyenas thus adjusted well to the climate change-induced decreased the presence of migratory herds in their territories, since maternal den presence did not decrease over 30 years and still matched periods of high prey abundance, irrespective of female social status. These results suggest a high plasticity in the response of this keystone predator to environmental variability.