Scholars frequently cite fuel scarcity after deforestation as a reason for the abandonment of most of the Roman iron smelting sites on Elba Island (Tuscan Archipelago, Italy) in the 1st century bce. Whereas the archaeological record clearly indicates the decrease in smelting activities, evidence confirming the ‘deforestation narrative’ is ambiguous. Therefore, we employed a stochastic, spatio-temporal model of the wood required and consumed for iron smelting on Elba Island in order to assess the availability of fuelwood on the island. We used Monte Carlo simulations to cope with the limited knowledge available on the past conditions on Elba Island and the related uncertainties in the input parameters. The model includes both, wood required for the furnaces and to supply the workforce employed in smelting. Although subject to high uncertainties, the outcomes of our model clearly indicate that it is unlikely that all woodlands on the island were cleared in the 1st century bce. A lack of fuel seems only likely if a relatively ineffective production process is assumed. Therefore, we propose taking a closer look at other reasons for the abandonment of smelting sites, e.g. the occupation of new Roman provinces with important iron ore deposits; or a resource-saving strategy in Italia. Additionally, we propose to read the development of the ‘deforestation narrative’ originating from the 18th/19th century in its historical context.
