dc.contributor.author
Bressan, Sarah
dc.contributor.author
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
dc.contributor.author
Seefeldt, Dominic
dc.date.accessioned
2020-01-09T11:19:53Z
dc.date.available
2020-01-09T11:19:53Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/26356
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-26117
dc.description.abstract
In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options.
en
dc.format.extent
38 Seiten
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
dc.subject
Limited statehood
en
dc.subject
contested orders
en
dc.subject
foreign policy
en
dc.subject
strategic foresight
en
dc.subject
conflict prevention
en
dc.subject
crisis prevention
en
dc.subject.ddc
300 Sozialwissenschaften::320 Politikwissenschaft::320 Politikwissenschaft
dc.title
Forecasting and foresight
dc.identifier.urn
urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-refubium-26356-6
dc.title.subtitle
Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://www.eu-listco.net/publications/forecasting-and-foresight-methods-for-anticipating-governance-breakdown-and-violent-conflict
refubium.affiliation
Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
yes
refubium.series.issueNumber
2
refubium.series.name
EU-LISTCO Working Paper Series
dcterms.accessRights.dnb
free
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access