Background: Pediatric low-grade glioma [PLGG] is often a chronic progressive disease requiring multiple treatments, i.e. surgery, chemotherapy and irradiation. The multi-state model [MSM] allows an extended analysis of disease-states, that patients may undergo, incorporating competing risks over the course of time. Purpose: We studied disease-state-probabilities of the German SIOP-LGG 2004 cohort from the initial state "diagnosis" to the final state "death". Transient "disease-states" incorporated successive surgical and non-surgical treatments. We evaluated clinical risk factors for highly progressive disease requiring multiple interventions and death. Results: We identified 22 states within 1587 patients (median follow-up 6.3 years). For robust statistical calculation, we reduced the model to 7 states and eventually to three levels of disease-progressiveness: non, low and highly progressive. Five years after diagnosis state-probabilities were: 0.11 no therapy, 0.49 one and 0.11 two or more surgeries only, 0.19 one and 0.06 two or more non-surgical interventions with or without prior surgery. At this time point higher probability for highly progressive disease was found in infants (0.30), supratentorial-midline location (0.17) and diffuse astrocytoma WHO-grade II (0.12). Neurofibromatosis type-1 patients were most likely not to be treated (0.36) or to have received only non-surgical therapy (0.45). Two years after diagnosis 3-year predictions for highly progressive disease and death increased with the number of interventions patients underwent in the first 2 years after diagnosis. Conclusion: In this first MSM analysis we delineated a refined description of PLGG disease course over time, identifying three levels of progressiveness. Growth behavior in the first two years predicted future progressiveness and death.
