dc.contributor.author
Illing, Sebastian
dc.contributor.author
Kadow, Christopher
dc.contributor.author
Pohlmann, Holger
dc.contributor.author
Timmreck, Claudia
dc.date.accessioned
2018-07-16T08:09:52Z
dc.date.available
2018-07-16T08:09:52Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/22469
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-276
dc.description.abstract
The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day−1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.
en
dc.format.extent
15 Seiten
de_DE
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
de_DE
dc.subject
climate system
en
dc.subject
volcanic eruption
en
dc.subject
prediction system
en
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
de_DE
dc.title
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
de_DE
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
de_DE
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.5194/esd-9-701-2018
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle
Earth System Dynamics
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart
701
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend
715
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume
9
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018
de_DE
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
de_DE
refubium.affiliation.other
Institut für Meteorologie
de_DE
refubium.funding
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
de_DE
refubium.note.author
Gefördert durch die DFG und den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der Freien Universität Berlin.
de_DE
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
de_DE
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access
dcterms.isPartOf.issn
2190-4979