Exploring water-society interaction: what can be learned at the interface of scenario analysis, integrated modelling, and policy gaming?

Abstract

To support strategic water management, a new scenario method is being developed to explore possible non-linear long-term developments of the coupled water-society system. This method entails a policy-game in which players compete over future water management policy. The game involves the formation and dynamical change of advocacy coalitions in which players holding similar perspectives on water management cooperate. Shifts in the positions and / or relative power of the various coalition perspectives - under various scenario drivers and shock events - are assumed representative for possible real-life future shifts of world view and management style at the societal level. The game involves various modelling tools. Players interact with an integrated computer model of the water system, to explore the long-tem impacts of various drivers, and the consequences of adopted management strategies. Furthermore, an analytical perspective mapping tool is used to visualise and quantify the development of the various coalition perspectives over time. This approach - combining scenario analysis, modelling, and policy gaming - aims to generate new insights in the dynamics of societal change. This may include a better understanding of its main drivers, and the assessment of thresholds (e.g. with respect to the level climate change) at which fundamental shifts (societal transitions) may occur. In this paper, a short overview is presented of the state-of-the-art in exploring human-environment interaction in scenario analysis, integrated modelling, and policy gaming. It focuses on the weaknesses of, and possible synergies between, the various approaches. It presents the new scenario method, and results from an application to Dutch river management. Despite various challenges in combining the methodological approaches, we argue that the combination of scenario analysis, integrated modelling, and policy gaming leads to relevant new insights to support sustainable water management.