Electrification of vehicles – policy drivers and impacts in two scenarios

Abstract

This paper will examine policy drivers of EV, and what potential role policy can play in enhancing the innovation and market development of EV, and the anticipated impacts on energy use and carbon emissions at the Nordic and EU scale. We will start with a policy review of key targets in the Nordic countries and the EU, up to 2030, and discuss to what extent they are consistent with industry and expert estimates of how the systems can grow. On the basis of this, the second part elaborates two simple scenarios of EV development in the EU, one rapid EV expansion scenario and one more modest expansion scenario. The third part examines what policy drivers might be needed to enable the two scenarios, using a technological innovation systems (TIS) perspective to describe the needed processes, drivers and developments in policy and technology at different levels (local, national, EU, global) that would lead to the scenarios. The fourth part analyses the energy and climate impacts of the two scenarios, given different assumptions relating to e.g. energy supply systems as well as driving behaviour.