dc.contributor.author
Wapler, Kathrin
dc.contributor.author
Harnisch, Florian
dc.contributor.author
Pardowitz, Tobias
dc.contributor.author
Senf, Fabian
dc.date.accessioned
2018-06-08T04:08:31Z
dc.date.available
2015-09-03T08:14:47.608Z
dc.identifier.uri
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/16663
dc.identifier.uri
http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-20844
dc.description.abstract
Two severe summer-time convective events in Germany are investigated which can
be classified by the prevailing synoptic conditions into a strong and a weak
forcing case. The strong forcing case exhibits a larger scale precipitation
pattern caused by frontal ascent whereas scattered convection is dominating
the convective activity in the weak forcing case. Other distinguished
differences between the cases are faster movement of convective cells and
larger regions with significant loss mainly due to severe gusts in the strong
forcing case. A comprehensive set of various observations is used to
characterise the two different events. The observations include measurements
from a lightning detection network, precipitation radar, geostationary
satellite and weather stations, as well as information from an automated cell
detection algorithm based on radar reflectivity which is combined with severe
weather reports, and damage data from insurances. Forecast performance at
various time scales is analysed ranging from nowcasting and warning to short-
range forecasting. Various methods and models are examined, including human
warnings, observation-based nowcasting algorithms and high-resolution ensemble
prediction systems. The analysis shows the advantages of a multi-sensor and
multi-source approach in characterising convective events and their impacts.
Using data from various sources allows to combine the different strengths of
observational data sets, especially in terms of spatial coverage or data
accuracy, e.g. damage data from insurances provide good spatial coverage with
little meteorological information while measurements at weather stations
provide accurate but pointwise observations. Furthermore, using data from
multiple sources allow for a better understanding of the convective life
cycle. Several parameters from different instruments are shown to have a
predictive skill for convective development, these include satellite-based
cloud-top cooling rates as measure for intensive convective growth, 3D-radar
reflectivity, mesocyclone detection from doppler radar, overshooting top
detection or lightning jumps to evaluate storm intensification and formation
of severe weather. This synergetic approach can help to improve nowcasting
algorihtms and thus the warning process. The predictability of the analysed
severe convective events differs with different types of forcing which is
reflected in both, convective-scale ensemble prediction system forecasts and
human weather warnings. Human warnings show larger false alarm rates in the
weak forcing case. Ensemble predictions are able to capture the
characteristics of the convective precipitation. The forecast skill is
connected strongly to the synoptic situation and the presence of large-scale
forcing increases the forecast skill. This has to be considered for potential
future warn-on-forecast strategies.
en
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/de/
dc.subject
deep convection
dc.subject
high-resolution ensemble modeling
dc.subject.ddc
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie
dc.title
Characterisation and predictability of a strong and a weak forcing severe
convective event – a multi-data approach
dc.type
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
dcterms.bibliographicCitation
Meteorologische Zeitschrift. - 24 (2015), 4, S. 393-410
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi
10.1127/metz/2015/0625
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.url
http://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/24/84726/Characterisation_and_predictability_of_a_strong_an?af=crossref
refubium.affiliation
Geowissenschaften
de
refubium.mycore.fudocsId
FUDOCS_document_000000023049
refubium.note.author
Der Artikel wurde in einer Open-Access-Zeitschrift publiziert.
refubium.resourceType.isindependentpub
no
refubium.mycore.derivateId
FUDOCS_derivate_000000005361
dcterms.accessRights.openaire
open access