Establishing symptom-based predictors of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) outcome seems promising, however, findings concerning the predictive value of distinct depressive symptoms or subtypes are limited; previous factor-analytic approaches based on the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) remained inconclusive, as proposed factors varied across samples. In this naturalistic study, we refrained from these previous factor-analytic approaches and examined the predictive value of MADRS single items and their change during the course of ECT concerning ECT outcome. We used logistic and linear regression models to analyze MADRS data routinely assessed at three time points in 96 depressed psychiatric inpatients over the course of ECT. Mean age was 53 years (SD 14.79), gender ratio was 58:38 (F:M), baseline MADRS score was M = 30.20 (SD 5.42). MADRS single items were strong predictors of ECT response, remission and overall symptom reduction, especially items 1 (apparent sadness), 2 (reported sadness) and 8 (inability to feel), assessing affective symptoms. Strongest effects were found for regression models including item 2 (reported sadness) with up to 80% correct prediction of ECT outcome. ROC analyses were performed to estimate the optimal cut-point for treatment response. MADRS single items during the course of ECT might pose simple, reliable, time- and cost-effective predictors of ECT outcome. More severe affective symptoms of depression at baseline and a stronger reduction of these affective symptoms during the course of ECT seem to be positively associated with ECT outcome. Precise cut-off values for clinical use were proposed. Generally, these findings underline the benefits of a symptom-based approach in depression research and treatment in addition to depression sum-scores and generalized diagnoses.
