Globalization and International Business Cycle Dynamics: a Conditional GVAR Approach

Abstract

We examine the effects of increased international integration of both goods and financial markets on business cycle dynamics. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework for modelling cross-country spillovers in which the magnitude of these spillovers is an empirically determined function of the degree of a country's integration with international goods and financial markets. Our results suggest that the magnitude of cross-country spillovers for most country pairs has been increasing with strengthened goods and financial markets integration.