https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/33604 2026-04-29T00:50:02Z 2026-04-29T00:50:02Z Bester, Helmut Sákovics, József https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35594 2022-10-31T11:03:47Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Cooperation, competition, and welfare in a matching market Bester, Helmut; Sákovics, József We investigate the welfare effect of increasing competition in an anonymous two-sided matching market, where matched pairs play an infinitely repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma. Higher matching efficiency is usually considered detrimental as it creates stronger incentives for defection. We point out, however, that a reduction in matching frictions also increases welfare because more agents find themselves in a cooperative relationship. We characterize the conditions for which increasing competition increases overall welfare. In particular, this is always the case when the incentives for defection are high.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Wolf, Elias https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/33910 2022-06-10T15:01:01Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Estimating growth at risk with skewed stochastic volatility models Wolf, Elias This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone’s (2019) seminal paper ”Vulnerable Growth”. In contrary to their semi-parametric approach, the SSV model enables researchers to capture the evolution of the densities parametrically to conduct statistical tests and compare different models. The SSV-model forms a non-linear, non-gaussian state space model that can be estimated using Particle Filtering and MCMC algorithms. To remedy drawbacks of standard Bootstrap Particle Filters, I modify the Tempered Particle Filter of Herbst and Schorfheide’s (2019) to account for stochastic volatility and asymmetric measurement densities. Estimating the model based on US data yields conditional forecast densities that closely resemble the findings by Adrian et al. (2019). Exploiting the advantages of the proposed model, I find that the estimated parameter values for the effect of financial conditions on the variance and skewness of the conditional distributions are statistically significant and in line with the intuition of the results found in the existing literature.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Coleman, Winnie Nautz, Dieter https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35508 2022-10-31T10:46:22Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Inflation Target Credibility in Times of High Inflation Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB’s inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the actual rate of inflation strongly indicate that inflation expectations have been de-anchored from the inflation target. With increasing inflation, German consumers are more convinced that - in contrast to the ECB’s inflation target - inflation will be well above 2% over the medium term.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Ahrens, Steffen Bosch-Rosa, Ciril Meissner, Thomas https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/33593 2022-06-10T14:57:55Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Intertemporal consumption and debt aversion Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from the original study replicate, with similar effect sizes. Additionally, we extend the original analysis by correlating a new individual index of debt aversion on individual characteristics such as gender, cognitive ability, and risk aversion. The findings suggest that gender and risk aversion are not correlated with debt aversion. However, cognitive ability is positively correlated with debt aversion. Overall, this paper confirms the importance of debt aversion in intertemporal consumption problems and validates the approach of Meissner (2016).

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