https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/18502 2026-04-29T03:26:48Z 2026-04-29T03:26:48Z Schreiber, Sven https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/20059 2021-08-19T06:02:23Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR Schreiber, Sven For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability mass below (or above) a given threshold value. We show how this approach can be used in real time in the presence of data publication lags and how it can capture the part of the data revision process that is systematic. Then we apply the method to US and German monthly data. In an out-of-sample exercise (for 2007-2012/13) the turning points can be signalled before the official data publication confirms them (but not before they happened in reality).

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Eichfelder, Sebastian Lau, Mona https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/20086 2021-08-19T06:02:21Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices Eichfelder, Sebastian; Lau, Mona We argue that the impact of capital gains taxation on asset pricing depends on the tax awareness of market participants. While institutional investors should be generally well-informed about tax regulations, private investors have only limited tax knowledge and resources. As a result, market reactions on tax law changes may be delayed if a considerable fraction of market participants is not fully tax-aware. In line with our argument, we find evidence that the introduction of a previously announced German flat tax on private capital gains in 2009 resulted in a temporarily strong and significant increase of trading volumes, daily returns and asset prices. Our research implies that tax law changes provide an opportunity for well-informed investors to generate arbitrage benefits. Corresponding to our estimate, the capital gains tax resulted in an increase demand for shares of 160 % as well as in an price surplus of about 7.4 % within the last two trading days 2008.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Heimstädt, Maximilian Saunderson, Fredric Heath, Tom https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/19799 2021-08-27T11:10:39Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Conceptualizing Open Data Ecosystems Heimstädt, Maximilian; Saunderson, Fredric; Heath, Tom In this paper, we conceptualize Open Data ecosystems by analysing the major stakeholders in the UK. The conceptualization is based on a review of popular Open Data definitions and business ecosystem theories, which we applied to empirical data using a timeline analysis. Our work is informed by a combination of discourse analysis and in-depth interviews, undertaken during the summer of 2013. Drawing on the UK as a best practice example, we identify a set of structural business ecosystem properties: circular flow of resources, sustainability, demand that encourages supply, and dependence developing between suppliers, intermediaries, and users. However, significant gaps and shortcomings are found to remain. Most prominently, demand is not yet fully encouraging supply and actors have yet to experience fully mutual interdependence.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Evers, Andrea Hundsdoerfer, Jochen https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/19862 2021-08-19T06:02:25Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Country-by-Country Reporting Evers, Andrea; Hundsdoerfer, Jochen Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR) soll für (insb. Steuer-)Behörden oder für die Öffentlichkeit Transparenz über die regionale Verteilung von Produktionsfaktoren, Gewinnen und Steuerzahlun-gen schaffen und so Steuervermeidungsstrategien aufdecken. Die folgende Analyse zeigt die Ent- stehungsgeschichte des CbCR und stellt die Möglichkeiten eines allgemein verpflichtenden CbCR für multinationale Unternehmen seinen Grenzen und Risiken gegenüber. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass das CbCR die Informationsansprüche der Adressaten nicht in der Weise befriedigen kann, wie seine Befürworter es propagieren. Auch CbCR als ein weiterer Rechenversuch ändert nichts daran, dass Gewinne von multinationalen Unternehmen nicht lokal zuordbar sind. Ein auf wenige, nachprüfbar zu ermittelnde Kernelemente reduziertes CbCR würde – ob freiwillig, als industrielle Selbstver-pflichtung oder als gesetzliche Pflicht – für die Informationsadressaten den gleichen Nutzen bringen wie das bislang vorgeschlagene detaillierte CbCR. Ein solches Basis-CbCR würde beispielsweise die Umsatzerlöse, die Arbeitnehmerzahl und/oder die Lohnsumme, das Sachanlagevermögen und/oder die Abschreibungen darauf sowie die gezahlten Ertragsteuern und/oder den Steueraufwand je Land ausweisen, nicht aber das Einkommen vor Steuern.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z